Will the DOJ v. Visa antitrust case (No. 1:24-CV-7214) have a trial date set or reach a settlement agreement by June 30, 2027?

MTD denied June 2025 and discovery ongoing through late 2026. For a trial date to be set by June 30, 2027, the court needs to move from discovery completion to scheduling order within roughly 6 months. In complex federal antitrust cases, the gap between discovery completion and trial date setting is typically 3-6 months, making a trial date by June 2027 plausible but tight. Settlement is the more likely YES path -- Visa's $2.6B provision (5.5x prior year) and $6.0B total balance sheet items signal settlement preparedness. DOJ seeking behavioral remedies (not breakup) makes negotiated resolution structurally feasible. However, DOJ may prefer trial for precedent and political dynamics could shift prosecution vigor.

Complex antitrust discovery involving 180+ merchant contracts, internal documents (Apple Pay 'existential threat'), and depositions of major tech companies typically extends beyond initial timelines. Even if discovery nominally concludes late 2026, expert discovery, Daubert motions, and summary judgment briefing could push trial scheduling into 2028. Settlement discussions often accelerate when trial approaches, but with discovery not yet complete, meaningful settlement talks may not begin until late 2026 or early 2027. The $2.6B provision suggests Visa readiness to negotiate, but DOJ under a potentially shifting political landscape may have varying appetite for settlement versus precedent-setting trial.

The disjunctive nature of this question (trial date SET or settlement) is crucial. Setting a trial date is a procedural step that typically happens once discovery closes and pre-trial motions are resolved. SDNY courts often set tentative trial dates or target dates in case management orders even during discovery. If the court issues a scheduling order with a target trial date of late 2027 or 2028, this would resolve YES regardless of whether the trial actually occurs then. The resolution criteria asks for a 'firm trial date' which is more specific, but federal courts routinely set firm dates 6-12 months ahead once discovery concludes. With discovery ending late 2026, a firm trial date by June 2027 is procedurally normal.

Two paths to YES: trial date set or settlement. Discovery runs through late 2026. Federal antitrust cases of this magnitude typically take 2-3 years from filing to trial. Filed September 2024, so a trial in late 2027 is within normal range. Courts routinely set trial dates 6-12 months ahead. If discovery wraps by end of 2026, a trial date could be set in early-mid 2027 even if the actual trial is later. Settlement possible given $2.6B provision and DOJ seeking injunctions rather than breakup, but DOJ antitrust division has been more litigious in recent years. The 17-month window to June 2027 is reasonable for at least getting a trial date scheduled.

The resolution criteria specifies 'firm trial date,' suggesting something more definitive than a preliminary scheduling order. On the trial date path, complex antitrust discovery must conclude, then summary judgment motions must be briefed and decided before a firm trial date is typically set. This sequence could easily extend past June 2027. On the settlement path, DOJ antitrust settlements of this magnitude typically require years of negotiation. The case is only 17 months from filing -- unusually fast for a settlement in a case this complex. Visa's $2.6B provision signals willingness but not necessarily imminent settlement.

Base rate analysis: DOJ v. Google (filed Oct 2020, trial Aug 2023 -- 34 months to trial). DOJ v. Visa case filed Sept 2024, so 34 months from filing would be July 2027 -- just past the resolution date for trial itself, but a trial date would be SET months earlier. For monopoly maintenance cases, 2-3 years to trial is typical. A trial date being SET by June 2027 (even if trial is later) seems moderately likely based on comparable case timelines. Settlement probability is lower given DOJ's stated preference for litigation in precedent-setting cases. Combined probability of either path to YES is moderate.

Discovery through late 2026. Trial expected late 2027/2028 per committee assessment. For trial date to be SET by June 2027, court needs to issue scheduling order after discovery closes -- this is routine once discovery completes. Settlement less likely in DOJ antitrust cases seeking precedent-setting behavioral remedies. The disjunctive question (trial date OR settlement) gives two paths to YES, raising probability above either path alone.

MTD denied June 2025 and discovery ongoing. $2.6B provision signals settlement readiness from Visa. But DOJ seeks behavioral remedies creating precedent -- may prefer trial over settlement. Complex antitrust discovery with 180+ merchant contracts and major tech companies could extend beyond late 2026 timeline. 17-month window from current date is tight for full resolution in complex antitrust. Trial date scheduling more likely than settlement in this timeframe but still uncertain.

Two paths to YES. Trial date is the more probable path -- courts typically schedule ahead once discovery closes. With discovery projected through late 2026, a scheduling conference and trial date setting in Q1-Q2 2027 is procedurally plausible. Settlement possible but DOJ antitrust division has been aggressive. Visa's $2.6B provision and $6.0B balance sheet items suggest settlement preparedness. Combined paths give moderate probability but the tight timeline keeps estimate below 50%.