Will Visa achieve FY2026 net revenue growth of 12% or above on a constant-dollar basis?

Q1 FY2026 at +15% creates a strong front-loaded quarter. To achieve 12% for full year, remaining 3 quarters collectively need ~11% growth. Management's 'low double digits' guide likely means 10-12%, placing 12% at the ceiling. VAS at +28% cc provides exceptional lift (~50% of revenue growth), but cross-border deceleration from +16% to +11% is a meaningful headwind on premium-yield transactions. Client incentive compression at 310bps above revenue growth is structural drag. The Q1 cushion plus VAS momentum make 12% achievable but management itself sees this as the upper bound of guidance.

FY2025 net revenue was $40.0B. 12% growth requires $44.8B. Q1 delivered $10.9B, so remaining quarters need $33.9B vs FY2025 Q2-Q4 of ~$30.5B — implying ~11.1% growth needed. This is achievable given Q1 momentum but cross-border deceleration is the swing factor. Management guided 'low double digits' — if they deliver 11%, we miss; 12% is literally the boundary. The narrative-reality gap from Myth Meter suggests execution ahead of expectations, but management has no incentive to guide above 12% given regulatory scrutiny. VAS at 28% cc is the X-factor — if it sustains 20%+ it pulls total above 12%; if cross-border drops below 10% it becomes harder.

Q1 at +15% provides meaningful cushion above the 12% threshold. VAS is the engine: $3.2B at +28% cc represents embedded partnerships (stablecoin ARR $4.6B), commercial card growth, and Visa Direct — not a one-quarter fluke. Cross-border at +11% is genuinely decelerating but still growing. The Gravy Gauge's concern about client incentive compression (310bps gap) is real but has been persistent and didn't prevent Q1 acceleration. FX is removed by the constant-dollar measurement. Net: Q1's +15% provides meaningful cushion, but sustaining 12% full year requires remaining quarters to average ~11%+. Given typical seasonal patterns and cross-border headwinds, this is roughly a coin-flip tilted slightly bearish given the FY2023-2025 CAGR baseline of 10.5%.

Q1 FY2026 at +15% is a strong start but the 12% full-year threshold sits at the upper end of management's 'low double digits' guidance. Cross-border deceleration from +16% to +11% is a real headwind on Visa's highest-margin transactions. VAS at +28% cc is the standout driver providing ~50% of revenue growth. The FY2023-2025 CAGR of 10.5% is below the 12% threshold, meaning sustained acceleration from historical trend is required. VAS momentum can sustain but cross-border headwinds and incentive compression partially offset. Slightly below coin-flip — threshold at upper bound of guidance.

Three factors matter most: (1) Q1 at +15% provides front-loaded cushion — remaining quarters only need ~11% collectively; (2) VAS at +28% cc is structural from stablecoin and Visa Direct secular trends, not cyclical; (3) Cross-border at +11% is a headwind but not collapsing. Against: management's 'low double digits' guidance suggests 10-12%, and they have no incentive to sandbag toward 12%+ given DOJ scrutiny. The 310bps incentive drag is structural and compresses net revenue. The Myth Meter's DIVERGING classification suggests operational execution is ahead of market pricing — but the question isn't about stock price, it's about hitting a specific growth threshold that's at the top of guidance.

The math: FY2025 was $40.0B total. Q1 FY2025 was ~$9.48B ($10.9B/1.15). Q2-Q4 FY2025 = ~$30.52B. Need Q2-Q4 FY2026 = $44.8B - $10.9B = $33.9B. Growth needed: ~11.1%. Given momentum and VAS, 11.1% is plausible but depends entirely on cross-border trajectory. Management guides full year at 'low double digits' which likely centers 10-11%, not 12%. If they hit 11% full year, we miss narrowly. The 12% threshold sits right at the boundary of management's own expectations — and management has every incentive to set expectations they can beat. 12% being the ceiling of guidance rather than the floor suggests management views it as stretch, not base case.

Q1 at +15% provides buffer. Need ~11% for remaining quarters. Management guides 'low double digits' (10-12%). VAS +28% cc is the key upside driver. Cross-border deceleration from +16% to +11% is the main drag. Client incentives growing 310bps faster than revenue compresses net growth. 12% is at the top of guidance — achievable but not the base case given FY2023-2025 CAGR of only 10.5%.

Front-loaded Q1 at +15% makes 12% full year possible if remaining quarters deliver ~11%. VAS momentum at 28% cc is strong secular trend. But cross-border slowing to +11% and client incentive compression (310bps gap) are headwinds. Management's 'low double digits' guide centers around 10-11% more than 12%+. The FY2023-2025 CAGR of 10.5% is the organic baseline — 12% requires outperformance vs trend that may not sustain across all 4 quarters.

Q1 outperformance (+15%) gives Visa a head start toward 12% full year. Remaining quarters need roughly +11%, near the FY2023-2025 CAGR of 10.5%. VAS growth at +28% cc is a tailwind but cross-border deceleration partially offsets. Management's conservative guidance pattern suggests they often beat, but 'low double digits' more naturally refers to 10-12% range, with 12% at the boundary. Slightly below coin-flip.