Will Visa report Value-Added Services revenue growth above 20% (constant dollar) in all remaining quarters of FY2026?

Q1 FY2026 VAS at 28% constant-dollar growth provides an 8pp cushion above the 20% threshold. Growth is broad-based across Visa Direct (+23%), stablecoin settlement ($4.6B ARR, nearly doubled from $2.5B), and AgenTik Commerce (100+ partners). The multi-vector nature makes abrupt deceleration below 20% unlikely. However, the conjunction requirement (ALL three quarters) reduces joint probability — even at ~88% per quarter, the joint is ~68%. Acquisitions (Pismo, Featurespace, Tink) provide incremental growth buffer. CCCA legislative risk is unlikely to impact VAS revenue within 3 quarters given typical legislative timelines.

The conjunction requirement is the critical analytical challenge. Even if each quarter independently has ~87% probability of clearing 20%, the joint probability drops to ~66%. VAS at 28% suggests strong momentum, and CMS at 20% shows broad-based growth. Stablecoin settlement nearly doubling is a genuine new growth vector. However, the committee found VAS is 'not independently proven' as a moat — meaning growth may be more dependent on core network volume than disclosed. If ~40% of VAS products are network-dependent and any regulatory overhang causes issuer hesitation, that segment could underperform. Acquisition contributions may also normalize as integration complexities surface.

Three consecutive quarters above 20% with a starting point of 28% seems achievable, but base comparison effects matter. FY2025 VAS growth was likely accelerating, meaning Q2-Q4 FY2026 face progressively tougher year-over-year comparisons. The committee identified that VAS margin profile is completely unknown — the most significant analytical gap across all lenses — suggesting management may be optimizing growth metrics at margin expense. Insider selling at $57M with zero purchases (12:0 ratio) is mildly negative. The Taneja selling is particularly notable given his visibility into technology and competitive threats. While 20% is well below 28%, one unexpected soft quarter from macro shock, comparison difficulty, or client rollout delay would resolve NO.

28% VAS growth with a 20% threshold gives significant headroom. Growth vectors are diversified across Visa Direct (+23%), stablecoin settlement ($4.6B ARR), and AgenTik Commerce (100+ partners). Organic growth accounts for 85-90% of total revenue growth per the Consolidation Calibrator, suggesting acquisitions aren't artificially inflating numbers. Management's 'low double digits' overall guidance doesn't break out VAS, so there's no sandbagging dynamic to worry about. The resolution requires ALL three quarters above 20%, making this a conjunction probability problem. At approximately 87% per quarter, the joint probability lands around 66%.

This question is essentially asking whether VAS growth decelerates by more than 8pp from its current 28% run rate within 3 quarters. That would require a dramatic deceleration in a segment with accelerating growth drivers. Stablecoin settlement went from $2.5B to $4.6B ARR in one year — a genuine secular growth vector not subject to traditional payment cycle dynamics. Visa Direct at 3.7B transactions growing 23% is driven by structural shift toward real-time payments. AgenTik Commerce is entirely new. The multi-vector nature makes simultaneous slowdown across all sub-categories unlikely. The biggest risk is a macro shock that hits payment volumes broadly, or a one-quarter anomaly from client timing.

VAS at 28% with a 20% threshold provides clear headroom, but I weigh several risk factors more heavily. VAS is a Visa-defined category where product boundary shifts can flatter growth. The committee found VAS profitability is completely undisclosed — the biggest analytical gap across all lenses — which suggests management may be investing heavily in VAS growth to support the narrative. The 40% network-dependent VAS share means regulatory developments could have disproportionate impact. Insider selling at $57M with zero purchases over 6+ months is a mild negative. The resolution requires clearing 20% in ALL three quarters — a single macro disruption, client timing issue, or comparison difficulty breaks it.

VAS at 28% vs 20% threshold = 8pp cushion. Multiple growth vectors: Visa Direct (+23%), stablecoin ($4.6B ARR, nearly doubled), AgenTik Commerce (100+ partners). Strong institutional momentum at Visa's scale. Three consecutive quarters required — conjunction probability at ~87% per quarter yields ~66% joint. Main risks are macro shock and toughening comparisons.

28% current vs 20% threshold provides substantial buffer. Stablecoin ARR nearly doubled in one year, Visa Direct growing 23%. However, acquisition contributions (Pismo, Featurespace, Tink) may fade as integration normalizes. YoY comparison periods get tougher through FY2026. The ALL-quarters requirement means even one soft quarter breaks the resolution. Regulatory overhang from DOJ antitrust and CCCA creates uncertainty for the 40% of VAS that is network-dependent.

Visa has massive institutional scale with 258B transactions and 5B+ credentials. VAS encompasses multiple product lines with independently growing sub-categories. The gap from 28% to 20% is substantial. Regulatory risk is medium-term, not near-term — CCCA legislation and DOJ case won't materially impact VAS revenue within 3 quarters. Acquisitions (Pismo, Featurespace, Tink) provide incremental growth buffer. The main risk is the conjunction requirement across all three quarters.