Will Visa's Value-Added Services revenue exceed 25% of total net revenue in any quarter during FY2026?

Q1 FY2026 VAS revenue of $3.2B against $10.9B net revenue yields an implied share of ~29.4%, already well above the 25% threshold. Visa management explicitly cited the $3.2B VAS figure on the Q1 earnings call, which constitutes management commentary under the resolution criteria. With VAS growing at 28% constant currency versus 15% total revenue growth, the VAS share should only increase through remaining FY2026 quarters. The primary risk is whether 'derivable' from disclosed figures counts as sufficient disclosure, but the resolution criteria explicitly allows derivation.

The resolution criteria requires that Visa 'discloses VAS as a named segment or percentage in any quarterly earnings call, press release, or investor day presentation showing >25%.' Q1 earnings call stated $3.2B VAS revenue, and the press release stated $10.9B net revenue, yielding a derivable 29.4%. However, Visa did not explicitly state '29% of revenue' or present VAS as a percentage. The resolution criteria's language about 'showing >25%' may require an explicit percentage disclosure rather than a calculation from two separate figures. This introduces meaningful ambiguity that lowers probability versus a straightforward reading.

The Q1 FY2026 data already meets the mathematical threshold: $3.2B / $10.9B = 29.4%. The resolution criteria includes 'derivable' which covers this calculation. Even if Q1 derivation is deemed insufficient, Visa has three more quarterly reports plus likely an investor day where VAS contribution could be explicitly stated. Management has been increasingly transparent about VAS metrics on earnings calls, citing specific dollar figures and growth rates. The trend toward greater VAS disclosure makes formal confirmation in a remaining quarter highly probable. The main downside risk is VAS reclassification or definitional changes that reduce the reported figure below 25%.

This market is nearly pre-resolved. Q1 FY2026 VAS revenue was explicitly disclosed at $3.2B on the earnings call, and total net revenue was $10.9B in the press release. That is 29.4% -- clearly above 25%. The resolution criteria specifically includes 'disclosed or derivable' and 'management commentary' as valid sources. Even under the strictest interpretation requiring an explicit percentage statement, Visa has three more quarterly earnings calls and likely an investor day in 2026 where VAS percentage could be explicitly cited. The probability of Visa never disclosing VAS share above 25% when it is already demonstrably there is very low.

The fundamental math favors YES: VAS at $3.2B / $10.9B net revenue = 29.4% in Q1. Management disclosed both figures publicly. The resolution criteria's 'disclosed or derivable' language covers this scenario. The discount from certainty reflects: (1) Visa could reclassify VAS boundaries narrowing the definition, (2) future quarters could show VAS share declining if base payment revenue accelerates disproportionately, and (3) the resolution might require more explicit disclosure than separate dollar figures. However, with VAS growing at 28% CC versus 15% total growth, the share gap only widens. Insider selling (routine 10b5-1) does not signal a VAS-specific concern.

Q1 FY2026 figures place VAS at approximately 29% of net revenue. Resolution criteria broadly includes derivable figures from earnings calls. Even if the strictest reading requires explicit percentage disclosure, management has been trending toward greater VAS transparency. Visa investor day presentations have historically included segment breakdowns. With VAS as the primary growth narrative and four lenses identifying it as the key adaptation mechanism, management has strong incentive to highlight VAS contribution. The only scenario for NO requires VAS definition changes that reduce it below 25% AND no explicit disclosure across four remaining quarters.

VAS already at ~29% of net revenue based on Q1 FY2026 disclosed figures ($3.2B / $10.9B). Resolution criteria includes 'derivable' from management commentary. VAS growth rate exceeds total revenue growth, so share only increases. Multiple quarterly reports remaining provide additional disclosure opportunities. High probability of YES.

The math strongly favors YES: $3.2B VAS / $10.9B net revenue = 29.4%. Earnings call constitutes management commentary per resolution criteria. Main risk is definitional -- if VAS is reclassified to exclude certain products, the figure could drop. Also, resolution criteria says 'showing >25%' which might require explicit statement rather than derivation. But three more quarters provide ample opportunity for explicit disclosure.

VAS share already appears above 25% based on Q1 data. Resolution criteria allows derivation from disclosed figures. VAS growing faster than total revenue means share only increases. Multiple quarterly reports remaining. The primary uncertainty is whether the resolution adjudicator requires explicit percentage statement versus derivation from two separate disclosed figures.