WActive

Will Wayfair sustain contribution margin at or above 15% through Q2 2026?

Resolves August 31, 2026(144d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

50%

Likely No

Model Agreement92%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Sustaining 15%+ contribution margin demonstrates structural improvement rather than one-time cost cuts. The Atomic Auditor assessed unit economics as PLAUSIBLE at current levels. Margin compression below 15% would suggest the cost discipline was temporary.

UNIT_ECONOMICSREVENUE_DURABILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 38% – 62%Aggregate: 50%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

58%

Annual average at 15.3% suggests some quarters below 15% - both Q1 AND Q2 must sustain the level. FY2025 averaged 15.3% provides partial support, but q1 historically weakest quarter creates counterweight. Probability: 0.58.

Annual average at 15.3% suggests some quarters below 15% - both Q1 AND Q2 must sustain the levelFY2025 averaged 15.3%Q1 historically weakest quarter

opusRun 2

62%

Annual average at 15.3% suggests some quarters below 15% - both Q1 AND Q2 must sustain the levelFY2025 averaged 15.3%Q1 historically weakest quarter

opusRun 3

50%

Annual average at 15.3% suggests some quarters below 15% - both Q1 AND Q2 must sustain the levelFY2025 averaged 15.3%Q1 historically weakest quarter

sonnetRun 1

57%

Base rate evidence: q1 historically weakest quarter. Partial offset from fy2025 averaged 15.3%. Annual average at 15.3% suggests some quarters below 15% - both Q1 AND Q2 must sustain the level. Probability: 0.57.

Q1 historically weakest quarterAnnual average at 15.3% suggests some quarters below 15% - both Q1 AND Q2 must sustain the levelFY2025 averaged 15.3%

sonnetRun 2

45%

Q1 historically weakest quarterAnnual average at 15.3% suggests some quarters below 15% - both Q1 AND Q2 must sustain the levelFY2025 averaged 15.3%

sonnetRun 3

38%

Q1 historically weakest quarterAnnual average at 15.3% suggests some quarters below 15% - both Q1 AND Q2 must sustain the levelFY2025 averaged 15.3%

haikuRun 1

49%

Annual average at 15.3% suggests some quarters below 15% - both Q1 AND Q2 must sustain the level. Balance of evidence suggests 0.49 probability. Primary support: fy2025 averaged 15.3%. Main counterargument: q1 historically weakest quarter.

Annual average at 15.3% suggests some quarters below 15% - both Q1 AND Q2 must sustain the levelFY2025 averaged 15.3%Q1 historically weakest quarter

haikuRun 2

48%

Annual average at 15.3% suggests some quarters below 15% - both Q1 AND Q2 must sustain the level. Balance of evidence suggests 0.48 probability. Primary support: fy2025 averaged 15.3%. Main counterargument: q1 historically weakest quarter.

Annual average at 15.3% suggests some quarters below 15% - both Q1 AND Q2 must sustain the levelFY2025 averaged 15.3%Q1 historically weakest quarter

haikuRun 3

58%

Annual average at 15.3% suggests some quarters below 15% - both Q1 AND Q2 must sustain the level. Balance of evidence suggests 0.58 probability. Primary support: fy2025 averaged 15.3%. Main counterargument: q1 historically weakest quarter.

Annual average at 15.3% suggests some quarters below 15% - both Q1 AND Q2 must sustain the levelFY2025 averaged 15.3%Q1 historically weakest quarter

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Wayfair reports contribution margin at or above 15.0% in both Q1 and Q2 2026. Resolves NO if either quarter falls below 15.0%.

Resolution Source

Wayfair Q1 and Q2 2026 earnings releases

Source Trigger

Contribution margin reached 15.3% in FY2025; sustainability determines whether improvement is structural or one-time

atomic-auditorUNIT_ECONOMICSMEDIUM

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