Will Wells Fargo's FY2026 total net interest income reach or exceed $49B?
Current Prediction
Prediction History
Q1 NII of $12.1B annualizes to $48.4B — below the $49B threshold on a flat run-rate. Management maintained the $50B +/- FY guide and called for H2 acceleration, and rate-path asymmetry now favors fewer cuts (positive for NII ex-Markets). The central scenario still clears $49B, but margin of safety narrowed.
Why This Question Matters
The central FY2026 question for a bank where ~60% of revenue is NII. $49B is the lower end of the plausible $50B guide range. Hitting validates the rate path assumption; missing signals the core trajectory has deviated.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(1 runs)
Q1 NII of $12.1B annualizes to $48.4B, roughly $600M short of the $49B threshold on a flat run-rate. Management maintained the FY guide and called for H2 acceleration driven by fixed-asset repricing, markets NII build, and loan growth already running hotter than guide. Rate-path asymmetry now favors the bank (fewer cuts than modeled) which is a NII tailwind ex-Markets. Q1 was a modest miss, not a break — the central scenario still clears $49B, but margin of safety narrowed materially versus the pre-earnings view.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Wells Fargo's FY2026 total net interest income (as reported in the Q4 2026 earnings release / 2026 10-K) is greater than or equal to $49.0 billion. Resolves NO if below $49.0B.
Resolution Source
Wells Fargo Q4 2026 earnings release and FY2026 10-K
Source Trigger
Full-year NII delivery vs $50B +/- guide as rate-path validation
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