WFCActive

Will Wells Fargo's Q1 2026 average loans be above $950B?

Resolves April 18, 2026(4d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

80%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement88%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 13, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Period-end loans were $986B at Dec 31 2025 after +5% QoQ growth. A $950B Q1 average tests whether post-asset-cap deployment is durable through seasonality and rate environment.

REVENUE_DURABILITYCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 78% – 84%Aggregate: 80%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

82%

Q4 2025 period-end loans were $986.2B after +5% QoQ growth. Q1 2026 average is the mean of Q4 exit and Q1 exit. Even flat Q1 QoQ would give $986B average, roughly $35B above the $950B threshold. Would require ~7% QoQ decline from Q4 exit to miss — implausible given post-asset-cap deployment.

Q4 exit $986B well above thresholdImplausible decline scenarioPost-asset-cap deployment ongoing

opusRun 2

80%

Q4 2025 period-end was $986.2B; even if Q4 average was lower (say $975B) and Q1 shows seasonal softness with modest commercial paydowns, Q1 average should still land in $975-985B range — comfortably above $950B. The margin of safety is roughly $25-35B which is far beyond any plausible seasonal variation.

Q4 avg ~$975B to $986B exitQ1 seasonal softness modestMargin of safety $25-35B

opusRun 3

84%

Very high confidence. Q4 2025 exit $986B plus continuing loan growth momentum makes Q1 average mechanically near $985B. $950B threshold is roughly 3.7% below the Q4 exit — would require an acute commercial credit facility drawdown reversal (unusual) or mass paydown. Neither is in any 2026 narrative.

Mechanical math favors threshold$35B buffer to thresholdNo unusual paydown in narrative

sonnetRun 1

80%

Period-end $986B at Dec 31 2025 with +5% QoQ momentum gives Q1 average base well above $950B threshold. Management guided mid-single-digit average loan growth for 2026. Even in a stall scenario, $950B is comfortably cleared.

Period-end $986B starting pointMid-single-digit guideStall scenario still clears

sonnetRun 2

78%

Base case comfortably clears. Small caveat that Q4 2025 period-end may have been inflated by year-end drawdowns (seasonal commercial pattern) that could reverse in Q1. But even a $20B reversal would still leave average above $950B.

Year-end drawdown reversal riskStill clears after reversalMid-single-digit guide

sonnetRun 3

82%

High confidence clear. $986B period-end minus normal Q1 seasonal paydown still averages $970-985B. The $950B threshold is set at a level that would only fail in an unusual credit contraction scenario.

High confidenceSeasonal paydown absorbableThreshold well below exit

haikuRun 1

80%

Q4 2025 $986B exit and 2026 mid-single-digit guide. Q1 average should be $975-985B. Clear threshold.

Q4 exit $986BMid-single-digit guideComfortable margin

haikuRun 2

78%

High confidence $950B cleared. Threshold is ~3.7% below Q4 exit level.

Margin of safetyQ4 exit momentum

haikuRun 3

82%

Mechanical math favors YES. Q4 2025 loan growth momentum carries into Q1.

Mechanical mathMomentum

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Wells Fargo's Q1 2026 total average loans (as reported in the Q1 2026 earnings release, financial supplement page showing quarterly averages) is strictly greater than $950 billion. Resolves NO if $950B or below.

Resolution Source

Wells Fargo Q1 2026 financial supplement

Source Trigger

Loan growth pace validation of post-asset-cap deployment story

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH

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