Will Wells Fargo's Q1 2026 diluted EPS be above $1.40?

Q4 2025 ex-severance EPS was $1.76. Q1 2026 should benefit from lower severance (~$0M vs $612M Q4), continuation of share count reduction, and loan growth NII. Offset by Q1 seasonal personnel expenses ~$700M and higher provision build. Net: Q1 2026 GAAP EPS likely in $1.45-1.60 range. $1.40 is a comfortable low end.

$1.40 is above consensus median (~$1.38-1.42). Implied Q1 clean EPS from full-year guide is ~$1.45 per quarter. Q1 seasonal drag is real — personnel expenses higher, NII lower day-count. Net GAAP EPS likely $1.42-1.52. $1.40 clears in most scenarios but variance is non-trivial.

Above coin flip lean. Supporting: share count reduction tailwind, Q4 2025 loan growth momentum, continuing efficiency initiatives, no Q1 severance charge expected. Risks: WIM fee revenue sensitivity to S&P 500, CRE office provisioning surprise, Q1 day-count NII. EPS $1.42-1.58 range estimate; $1.40 cleared in ~7 of 10 paths.

Consensus EPS for Q1 2026 centers around $1.40-1.45. Management beat Q4 2025 on a clean basis and has been disciplined. Big-4 banks historically have a Q1 EPS that is ~3-8% above the low-end consensus on beats. $1.40 is at the low end of consensus so clearing it is the base case.

Right at coin flip lean. Q1 is seasonally the softest quarter for big-4 banks and the 2026 Q1 setup has specific headwinds (day-count NII, personnel, provisioning build). Moderating buyback pace reduces the share count tailwind vs 2025 comparable. $1.40 is a credible but non-trivial threshold.

Lean above coin flip. 2025 delivered +17% EPS growth and Q1 2026 is the first read on whether 2026 can sustain mid-single-digit growth. Consensus is calibrated near $1.40 which means the market has mostly priced in the modest guide. Management has track record of beating on NII and expense discipline.

Q1 2026 EPS expected $1.42-1.55 range. Consensus ~$1.40. Base case clears threshold but with variance from day-count NII, provisioning, and fee revenue.

Slight positive lean. $1.40 is at the consensus low end. WFC has beat EPS consensus in 7 of last 8 quarters. Q1 seasonal headwinds are real but priced in.

Share count tailwind plus no Q1 severance charge plus loan growth momentum support clearing $1.40. Offset by Q1 personnel seasonality and higher provisions.