Will Wells Fargo's Q1 2026 net interest income be above $12.0B?

Q4 2025 total NII run-rate is ~$12.0-12.1B and 2026 NII ex markets guide averages $12.0B per quarter. Adding ~$500M markets NII per quarter brings total to ~$12.5B average. Q1 2026 should be slightly below average due to day-count headwind (~$100M) and Q1 seasonality, landing in ~$12.1-12.3B range. The $12.0B threshold is plausibly cleared but not a layup.

Management specifically warned Q1 NII ex markets will decline due to 2 fewer days. This is a ~2.2% day-count headwind against a ~$12B base = ~$260M. Net effect on total NII is offset by fixed-asset repricing and loan growth. Q1 is typically the softest quarter for big-4 banks on NII. Slight lean positive because markets NII growth trajectory continues and loan growth momentum from Q4 carries.

Three factors favor clearing $12.0B: (1) Q4 2025 NII grew $381M QoQ with loan growth accelerating, (2) markets NII is a growing contributor and 2026 guides $2B full year = ~$500M per quarter, (3) deposit franchise cost is still declining -29bps trajectory from 2025. Main risk is rate cut timing — if the Fed accelerates cuts in Q1, NII compresses faster.

The math works out to Q1 2026 total NII in the $12.0-12.3B band. $12.0B is the low end of reasonable expectations. Management set up for Q1 softness in their Q4 commentary. Loan growth momentum from Q4 2025 (+5% QoQ period-end) is the primary positive offset. Fed rate cut assumptions in the 2026 guide are 2-3 cuts — if the Q1 decision is no-cut or one cut, NII support improves.

Slight lean above coin flip. The $12.0B threshold is near the expected print and management explicitly said Q1 NII ex markets will be lower. The implied total NII with markets is roughly at the threshold. Variance is meaningful — if rate cuts start earlier or loan growth surprises on the downside, this misses.

Positive lean because: (1) Q4 2025 loan growth +5% QoQ sets strong Q1 average loan base, (2) markets trading assets grew 50% in 2025 and the associated NII is now a meaningful contributor, (3) fixed-asset repricing continues. The day-count headwind is real but is ~$100-120M which is absorbable. Clearing $12.0B looks like the base case.

Base case Q1 2026 total NII is ~$12.0-12.3B given Q4 2025 exit momentum and day-count headwind. $12.0B threshold is achievable but close.

Slight positive lean. Q1 usually softer than Q4 annualized but 2026 guide implies full-year average above threshold.

Loan growth momentum from Q4 and fixed-asset repricing suggest Q1 NII holds above $12.0B despite day-count headwind.