Will Wave Life Sciences keep quarterly R&D expenses below $60M for all quarters of FY2026?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
R&D spend above $60M/quarter was flagged as a CRITICAL monitoring threshold by the Stress Scanner. Staying below $60M suggests disciplined pipeline management. Exceeding it would compress the cash runway below Q3 2028 guidance, potentially forcing a dilutive financing at an inopportune time.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
Natural trajectory approaches $60M by Q3-Q4 2026 - all 4 quarters below requires active burn management. Management guided Q3 2028 runway implying burn discipline provides partial support, but q4 2025 already at $52.8m trending up ~$2-3m/quarter creates counterweight. Probability: 0.25.
Natural trajectory approaches $60M by Q3-Q4 2026 - all 4 quarters below requires active burn management. Management guided Q3 2028 runway implying burn discipline provides partial support, but q4 2025 already at $52.8m trending up ~$2-3m/quarter creates counterweight. Probability: 0.47.
Natural trajectory approaches $60M by Q3-Q4 2026 - all 4 quarters below requires active burn management. Management guided Q3 2028 runway implying burn discipline provides partial support, but q4 2025 already at $52.8m trending up ~$2-3m/quarter creates counterweight. Probability: 0.46.
Base rate evidence: q4 2025 already at $52.8m trending up ~$2-3m/quarter. Partial offset from management guided q3 2028 runway implying burn discipline. Natural trajectory approaches $60M by Q3-Q4 2026 - all 4 quarters below requires active burn management. Probability: 0.35.
Base rate evidence: q4 2025 already at $52.8m trending up ~$2-3m/quarter. Partial offset from management guided q3 2028 runway implying burn discipline. Natural trajectory approaches $60M by Q3-Q4 2026 - all 4 quarters below requires active burn management. Probability: 0.35.
Base rate evidence: q4 2025 already at $52.8m trending up ~$2-3m/quarter. Partial offset from management guided q3 2028 runway implying burn discipline. Natural trajectory approaches $60M by Q3-Q4 2026 - all 4 quarters below requires active burn management. Probability: 0.39.
Natural trajectory approaches $60M by Q3-Q4 2026 - all 4 quarters below requires active burn management. Balance of evidence suggests 0.5 probability. Primary support: management guided q3 2028 runway implying burn discipline. Main counterargument: q4 2025 already at $52.8m trending up ~$2-3m/quarter.
Natural trajectory approaches $60M by Q3-Q4 2026 - all 4 quarters below requires active burn management. Balance of evidence suggests 0.31 probability. Primary support: management guided q3 2028 runway implying burn discipline. Main counterargument: q4 2025 already at $52.8m trending up ~$2-3m/quarter.
Natural trajectory approaches $60M by Q3-Q4 2026 - all 4 quarters below requires active burn management. Balance of evidence suggests 0.35 probability. Primary support: management guided q3 2028 runway implying burn discipline. Main counterargument: q4 2025 already at $52.8m trending up ~$2-3m/quarter.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Wave reports quarterly R&D expenses below $60M for all four quarters of FY2026. Resolves NO if any quarter exceeds $60M.
Resolution Source
Wave Life Sciences quarterly 10-Q and annual 10-K filings
Source Trigger
R&D expenses at $52.8M (Q4 2025) and rising; exceeding $60M/quarter would compress runway below Q3 2028 guidance
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