XMTRActive

Will Xometry quantify top-10 customer concentration as a percentage of revenue in any 2026 SEC filing?

Resolves January 15, 2027(264d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

22%

Likely No

Model Agreement96%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 25, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Tests whether the committee's CONSENSUS_BLINDSPOT (undisclosed top-10 customer concentration) gets resolved through disclosure. Disclosure itself materially reduces ASSUMPTION_FRAGILITY whether the number is high or low. Tiered count disclosures (4 >$10M) suggest no single >10% but cohort is unknown.

REVENUE_DURABILITYASSUMPTION_FRAGILITYCONSENSUS_BLINDSPOT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 20% – 25%Aggregate: 22%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

22%

Disclosure pattern is sticky: tiered count is current practice, no SEC mandate to disclose grouped %. CEO transition (Sahni July 1) provides modest catalyst — new CEOs add disclosure ~25-30% of time. Approaching $1B scale adds modest pressure. Combined ~22%. ~22%.

Pattern stickySahni mild catalyst 25-30%Approaching $1B scale

opusRun 2

20%

No external trigger (no activist, no analyst pressure publicized, no SEC comment letter known). Mgmt has answered concentration questions on calls with tier counts, not %. 8-month window from Apr 26 to Dec 31 captures 3 quarterly filings + 2026 proxy filing window. ~20%.

No external triggerPast answer pattern3 quarterly filings + proxy window

opusRun 3

25%

Resolution language is broad — 'top-10 OR top-5, top-3, or largest grouped' — increases probability vs strict top-10. Mgmt may discuss '4 customers >$10M and ~$X% of revenue' as natural extension of existing disclosure. ~25%.

Broad resolution languageNatural extension of existing disclosure

sonnetRun 1

20%

Pattern of opacity continues without external catalyst. CEO transition modest catalyst. ~20%.

Opacity patternTransition mild

sonnetRun 2

23%

Investor pressure may build through 2026 as concentration becomes more salient with growth. Sahni first-quarterly-call (Q3 2026) is a natural disclosure moment. ~23%.

Building investor pressureSahni first call moment

sonnetRun 3

21%

Hard threshold; without external pressure, mgmt unlikely to volunteer. Some chance Sahni resets disclosure norms. ~21%.

Hard threshold absent pressureSahni reset chance

haikuRun 1

22%

Below coin-flip. Pattern unlikely to change without trigger. Some catalyst from transition. ~22%.

Below coin-flipPattern stable

haikuRun 2

20%

Disclosure pattern continuity bias. ~20%.

Continuity bias

haikuRun 3

23%

CEO transition + investor scrutiny modest catalysts. Below 25%. ~23%.

Transition catalystInvestor scrutiny

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if any Xometry SEC filing (10-Q, 10-K, 8-K, or proxy) filed between April 26, 2026 and December 31, 2026 contains an explicit numeric disclosure of the percentage of total or marketplace revenue attributable to the top-10 (or top-5, top-3, or 'largest' grouped) customers. Resolves NO if no such quantitative grouped disclosure is made; tiered count disclosures (e.g., '4 customers >$10M') alone do not satisfy.

Resolution Source

Xometry SEC filings calendar year 2026

Source Trigger

Customer concentration disclosure — top 10 customers >35% of revenue would shift REVENUE_DURABILITY to CONDITIONAL

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYMEDIUM

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