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XMTRActive

Will Xometry report FY 2026 Adjusted EBITDA at or above $40M?

Resolves March 15, 2027(230d)

IG: 0.60

Current Prediction

68%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement94%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 25, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Tests whether 20% incremental Adj EBITDA margin discipline holds through CEO transition (Sahni effective July 1, 2026). Black Swan Beacon Scenario B explicitly flagged transition friction breaking incremental margin track record as 10-20% probability MATERIAL risk. $40M reflects modest compression (from ~$50M central case) — the threshold where operating leverage thesis remains intact but no longer accelerating.

UNIT_ECONOMICSGOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENTFUNDING_FRAGILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 65% – 72%Aggregate: 68%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

68%

FY 2025 base $18.5M + 20% incremental on $144M minimum revenue growth = $47M central case. Even with revenue at guide floor ($832M) + 15% incremental margin (vs 20% track record) = $40M flat. CEO transition friction (BSB Scenario B, 10-20%) is main downside. ~68%.

Central case $47MFloor case $40M with 15% incrementalTransition friction main downside

opusRun 2

65%

$40M needs only ~12.6% incremental at $855M revenue or ~15% at $832M floor — substantially below 20% track record. Marketplace GM expanding +80bp YoY adds tailwind. Risk: international segment investment acceleration could absorb $5-10M. ~65%.

12-15% incremental needed vs 20% track recordGM expansion tailwindInternational investment risk

opusRun 3

72%

Three-year incremental margin discipline track record is strong. Mgmt has explicit narrative incentive to demonstrate continuity through CEO transition. International segment narrowing losses. SBC at 5.3% of revenue stable, not accelerating. Lean YES with margin. ~72%.

3-yr discipline track recordContinuity incentiveInternational narrowingSBC stable

sonnetRun 1

66%

Central case ~$50M, threshold $40M = 20% cushion. Incremental margin only needs 13-15% (vs 20% track). Mgmt continuity incentive. ~66%.

Central $50M, 20% cushion13-15% incremental needed

sonnetRun 2

69%

Q4 2025 exit run-rate strong. Marketplace GM expanding flows directly to EBITDA. Operating leverage discipline pattern across 3 years; year 4 typically continues. Tail: Sahni hiring/SBC spike in 2H. ~69%.

Strong exit run-rateGM tailwind to EBITDAYear 4 pattern continuationSahni 2H tail

sonnetRun 3

65%

$40M = ~4.7% margin (on $855M) vs 2.7% in 2025. Doubling margin in one year is non-trivial; needs ~$22M improvement. Historical pace was $28M YoY (2024 to 2025). Pace continuation supports threshold. ~65%.

4.7% vs 2.7% margin$22M improvement needed$28M YoY 2024-2025 historical

haikuRun 1

67%

Threshold is moderate — 13-15% incremental vs 20% track record. Lean YES. ~67%.

Moderate thresholdBelow track record

haikuRun 2

68%

Discipline pattern + mgmt incentive + GM expansion. ~68%.

DisciplineIncentiveGM expansion

haikuRun 3

68%

Central case $47M, threshold $40M, transition tail risk. ~68%.

Central $47MThreshold $40MTransition tail

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Xometry's reported full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA (as defined in the company's non-GAAP reconciliation in the FY 2026 10-K or Q4 2026 earnings release) is at or above $40.0M. Resolves NO if below $40.0M.

Resolution Source

Xometry FY 2026 10-K filing or Q4 2026 earnings release

Source Trigger

Incremental Adj EBITDA margin below 15% for 2 consecutive quarters would break operating leverage thesis

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

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