XMTRActive

Will Xometry report FY 2026 marketplace gross margin at or above 36.0%?

Resolves March 15, 2027(323d)

IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

42%

Likely No

Model Agreement96%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 25, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Tests whether marketplace GM expansion sustains beyond 35% — the upgrade line for COMPETITIVE_POSITION toward DOMINANT. Black Swan Beacon flagged ASSUMPTION_FRAGILITY=MODERATE because the 25% to 35% trajectory could be partly cycle-driven. Above 36% sustained tilts toward AI-edge interpretation; below leaves narrative-vs-evidence ambiguity intact.

COMPETITIVE_POSITIONASSUMPTION_FRAGILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 40% – 45%Aggregate: 42%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

42%

FY 2025 = 35.0%; Q4 2025 = 35.3%. 100bp full-year expansion to 36.0% requires Q4 exit trajectory to continue and accelerate. 4-yr trajectory averaged 250bp/yr but year 5 of any S-curve typically slows. Cycle-vs-structural ambiguity is the load-bearing debate; Black Swan Beacon flagged ASSUMPTION_FRAGILITY. Mgmt guided 'higher' but not 100bp specific. ~42%.

100bp from FY baseYear 5 S-curve typically slowsCycle vs structural ambiguityMgmt guide vague

opusRun 2

40%

Compounding analysis: AI engine improvements at year 5 typically deliver 50-150bp/yr but with widening dispersion. CEO transition friction (Sahni July 1) historically introduces 1-2Q margin variance — adds downside skew to FY average. Probability of clean 100bp expansion through transition is below coin-flip. ~40%.

Year 5 compounding 50-150bp dispersionCEO transition varianceBelow coin-flip

opusRun 3

45%

Counter: Q4 exit at 35.3% means H1 2026 starting from a higher base. If H1 averages 35.3% and H2 expands modestly, FY could land 35.5-36.2%. Threshold sits in upper edge of plausible range. ~45%.

Q4 exit base 35.3%H1/H2 math suggests 35.5-36.2%Threshold upper edge

sonnetRun 1

40%

Need 100bp YoY expansion vs 250bp 4-year average. Year 5+ typically moderates. CEO transition risk. Cycle component at risk. ~40%.

100bp vs 250bp avgYear 5+ moderationTransition + cycle risks

sonnetRun 2

43%

Distribution of outcomes: 35.0% holds (~30%), 35.5-36.0% (~30%), 36.0%+ (~40% — if AI engine compounding is structural). Probability of 36.0%+ ~ 40-45%. ~43%.

Distribution analysisAI engine structural test

sonnetRun 3

41%

Mgmt guide 'higher than 2025' suggests range 35.2-36.5%. 36.0%+ is upper half of guide range, requires consistent execution. CEO transition introduces 1Q tail risk. ~41%.

Guide range 35.2-36.5%Upper half requiredTransition tail

haikuRun 1

42%

100bp expansion is ambitious. Trajectory positive but moderating expected. ~42%.

Ambitious 100bpTrajectory moderating

haikuRun 2

44%

Q4 exit suggests base higher than FY 2025 average. H1 starting strong supports threshold. ~44%.

Q4 exit baseH1 strong start

haikuRun 3

41%

Below-coin-flip with positive skew. Cycle and transition risks weigh. ~41%.

Below coin-flipPositive skewRisks weigh

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Xometry's reported full-year 2026 marketplace segment gross margin (as disclosed in the FY 2026 10-K filing) is at or above 36.0%. Resolves NO if below 36.0%.

Resolution Source

Xometry FY 2026 10-K filing

Source Trigger

Marketplace gross margin sustained above 36% would upgrade COMPETITIVE_POSITION toward DOMINANT

moat-mapperCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONHIGH

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