Will Xometry report FY 2026 total revenue at or above $855M?

FY 2025 = $688M; mgmt guides 21%+ ($832M floor). Q1 marketplace pacing 27-28% suggests blended total growth ~24% feasible ($855M). 2H 2025 grew 26% — momentum thesis. Mgmt typically beats guide by 2-4 points. ~62%.

Services revenue (Thomas) declining 4% drags blended; if marketplace grows 27% and services -5%, total ~24% — right at threshold. Tariff de-escalation tail (15-25% per BSB) could pull H2 growth to 18-20% if cycle resets. ~60%.

Buyer cohort expansion (+20% active buyers, +18% $50K+ accounts) supports broad-based growth thesis. International growing fast off small base provides incremental upside. CEO transition could introduce 2H execution variance but mgmt has incentive to telegraph stability. ~65%.

Math: $688M × 1.243 = $855M. Q1 27-28% marketplace + services declining = blended ~24%. Right at threshold. Lean slightly above coin-flip from mgmt-guide-beat pattern. ~60%.

Workflow embedding + 98% existing-account revenue base provides predictable foundation. Reshoring tailwind continues per mgmt commentary. Q1 pacing supports mid-20s blended. ~63%.

21% guide is conservative ($832M) but $855M requires 24% — modest 3-pt beat. Historical track record supports beat. CEO transition creates 2H variance, lowering certainty. ~59%.

Q1 pacing suggests ~24% blended growth feasible. Lean above coin-flip. ~61%.

$855M = 24% growth, modest 3pt beat over 21% guide floor. Achievable but not certain. ~60%.

Mgmt track record + Q1 pacing + reshoring tailwind. Above coin-flip. ~62%.