Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive

XMTRActive

Will Xometry report Q1 2026 marketplace gross margin at or above 34%?

Resolves May 15, 2026

IG: 0.60

Current Prediction

80%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement96%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 25, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Q1 2026 is the first quarterly read on whether marketplace GM holds above the committee's 34% escalation line through the seasonal mix low. A clean print at or above 34% validates the moat thesis tracking management's guide; a print below 34% is the first quarter of a two-quarter compression watch. Most-immediate single catalyst event in the market set.

COMPETITIVE_POSITIONUNIT_ECONOMICS

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 77% – 82%Aggregate: 80%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

80%

Q4 2025 exit at 35.3%, 130bp cushion vs 34%. Management guided 2026 GM higher than 2025. Q1 seasonal mix headwind typically 50-100bp possible (smaller-volume orders), bringing realistic Q1 range to 34.3-35.3%. Required compression to miss is ~130bp from exit run-rate — atypical absent macro shock. ~80%.

Q4 exit cushion 130bpMgmt guide higherQ1 seasonal -50 to -100bp typicalAI engine compounding

opusRun 2

78%

Trajectory: 25% to 35% over 4 years = ~250bp/yr expansion. Q1 likely 34.5-35.0% as central case. Risk: enterprise customer mix shift (4 >$10M) could pressure take-rate; tariff de-escalation could remove some supply-tightness contribution. But two-quarter compression watch means single Q1 below 34% doesn't break thesis. ~78%.

Trajectory 250bp/yrCentral Q1 34.5-35.0%Enterprise mix riskTwo-quarter watch

opusRun 3

82%

S&M efficiency improving (-40bp marketplace ad spend) provides operational lever. Workflow embedding (Punchout, ERP) supports take-rate stability. Q1 marketplace pacing 27-28% YoY suggests strong demand environment supporting margins. Probability of dropping 130bp QoQ in single quarter without macro catalyst is low. ~82%.

S&M efficiency leverWorkflow embeddingStrong demand pacingQoQ 130bp drop atypical

sonnetRun 1

80%

Q4 2025 exit 35.3% with mgmt guide 'higher than 2025'. Q1 seasonal usually mild for industrial marketplaces. Required miss is 130bp drop in one quarter — absent macro/competitor shock, low probability. ~80%.

Exit 35.3%Mgmt guideMild seasonalityMacro shock required

sonnetRun 2

77%

Cycle component: if reshoring tailwind partially recedes in Q1, GM could compress 50-80bp. But absent acute trade policy event in window, unlikely. Enterprise mix shift continues but at moderate pace — incremental impact small. Slight bias to YES. ~77%.

Cycle component partialTrade policy event neededEnterprise mix moderate pace

sonnetRun 3

82%

Multi-quarter trend: marketplace GM has expanded 9 of last 12 quarters per committee notes. Compression episodes typically follow disclosed mix shifts (e.g., new enterprise win at concession price). No such disclosure currently. ~82%.

9 of 12 quarters expansionCompression typically disclosedNo current disclosure

haikuRun 1

78%

Exit run-rate 35.3%, 130bp cushion. Mgmt guide higher. Q1 typical seasonality -50bp. Lands ~34.8% central case. Above threshold. ~78%.

Exit 35.3%Q1 seasonality -50bpCentral 34.8%

haikuRun 2

80%

Trajectory consistent positive. Mgmt explicitly guided higher. AI engine compounding. ~80%.

Positive trajectoryMgmt guideAI compounding

haikuRun 3

79%

Cushion sizable, no near-term disrupter signaled. Lean YES. ~79%.

Sizable cushionNo disrupter

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Xometry's reported Q1 2026 marketplace segment gross margin (as disclosed in the Q1 2026 10-Q filing or earnings release) is at or above 34.0%. Resolves NO if below 34.0%.

Resolution Source

Xometry Q1 2026 10-Q filing or earnings release

Source Trigger

Marketplace gross margin trajectory — below 34% for 2 consecutive quarters weakens moat thesis materially

moat-mapperCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONHIGH

View XMTR Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis