XMTRActive

Will Xometry report Q1 2026 marketplace gross margin at or above 34%?

Resolves May 15, 2026(19d)

IG: 0.60

Current Prediction

80%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement96%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 25, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Q1 2026 is the first quarterly read on whether marketplace GM holds above the committee's 34% escalation line through the seasonal mix low. A clean print at or above 34% validates the moat thesis tracking management's guide; a print below 34% is the first quarter of a two-quarter compression watch. Most-immediate single catalyst event in the market set.

COMPETITIVE_POSITIONUNIT_ECONOMICS

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 77% – 82%Aggregate: 80%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

80%

Q4 2025 exit at 35.3%, 130bp cushion vs 34%. Management guided 2026 GM higher than 2025. Q1 seasonal mix headwind typically 50-100bp possible (smaller-volume orders), bringing realistic Q1 range to 34.3-35.3%. Required compression to miss is ~130bp from exit run-rate — atypical absent macro shock. ~80%.

Q4 exit cushion 130bpMgmt guide higherQ1 seasonal -50 to -100bp typicalAI engine compounding

opusRun 2

78%

Trajectory: 25% to 35% over 4 years = ~250bp/yr expansion. Q1 likely 34.5-35.0% as central case. Risk: enterprise customer mix shift (4 >$10M) could pressure take-rate; tariff de-escalation could remove some supply-tightness contribution. But two-quarter compression watch means single Q1 below 34% doesn't break thesis. ~78%.

Trajectory 250bp/yrCentral Q1 34.5-35.0%Enterprise mix riskTwo-quarter watch

opusRun 3

82%

S&M efficiency improving (-40bp marketplace ad spend) provides operational lever. Workflow embedding (Punchout, ERP) supports take-rate stability. Q1 marketplace pacing 27-28% YoY suggests strong demand environment supporting margins. Probability of dropping 130bp QoQ in single quarter without macro catalyst is low. ~82%.

S&M efficiency leverWorkflow embeddingStrong demand pacingQoQ 130bp drop atypical

sonnetRun 1

80%

Q4 2025 exit 35.3% with mgmt guide 'higher than 2025'. Q1 seasonal usually mild for industrial marketplaces. Required miss is 130bp drop in one quarter — absent macro/competitor shock, low probability. ~80%.

Exit 35.3%Mgmt guideMild seasonalityMacro shock required

sonnetRun 2

77%

Cycle component: if reshoring tailwind partially recedes in Q1, GM could compress 50-80bp. But absent acute trade policy event in window, unlikely. Enterprise mix shift continues but at moderate pace — incremental impact small. Slight bias to YES. ~77%.

Cycle component partialTrade policy event neededEnterprise mix moderate pace

sonnetRun 3

82%

Multi-quarter trend: marketplace GM has expanded 9 of last 12 quarters per committee notes. Compression episodes typically follow disclosed mix shifts (e.g., new enterprise win at concession price). No such disclosure currently. ~82%.

9 of 12 quarters expansionCompression typically disclosedNo current disclosure

haikuRun 1

78%

Exit run-rate 35.3%, 130bp cushion. Mgmt guide higher. Q1 typical seasonality -50bp. Lands ~34.8% central case. Above threshold. ~78%.

Exit 35.3%Q1 seasonality -50bpCentral 34.8%

haikuRun 2

80%

Trajectory consistent positive. Mgmt explicitly guided higher. AI engine compounding. ~80%.

Positive trajectoryMgmt guideAI compounding

haikuRun 3

79%

Cushion sizable, no near-term disrupter signaled. Lean YES. ~79%.

Sizable cushionNo disrupter

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Xometry's reported Q1 2026 marketplace segment gross margin (as disclosed in the Q1 2026 10-Q filing or earnings release) is at or above 34.0%. Resolves NO if below 34.0%.

Resolution Source

Xometry Q1 2026 10-Q filing or earnings release

Source Trigger

Marketplace gross margin trajectory — below 34% for 2 consecutive quarters weakens moat thesis materially

moat-mapperCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONHIGH

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