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Will Zillow's enhanced markets connection share exceed 50% by year-end 2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(325d)
IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

66%
Likely Yes
Model Agreement91%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Enhanced markets connection share is the core execution metric for Zillow's growth strategy. Currently at 44% with a 75% target, crossing 50% would represent a meaningful inflection point. Stagnation at current levels would suggest market saturation or legal constraints from RESPA litigation.

REVENUE_DURABILITYCOMPETITIVE_POSITION

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 50% – 78%Aggregate: 66%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
78%

Linear trajectory supports 50% by Q3 but RESPA legal risk is the primary uncertainty. Current pace of 2-3pp/quarter from 44% reaches 50% by Q3 2026 provides partial support, but respa litigation may slow expansion creates counterweight. Probability: 0.78.

Linear trajectory supports 50% by Q3 but RESPA legal risk is the primary uncertaintyCurrent pace of 2-3pp/quarter from 44% reaches 50% by Q3 2026RESPA litigation may slow expansion
opusRun 2
66%

Linear trajectory supports 50% by Q3 but RESPA legal risk is the primary uncertainty. Current pace of 2-3pp/quarter from 44% reaches 50% by Q3 2026 provides partial support, but respa litigation may slow expansion creates counterweight. Probability: 0.66.

Linear trajectory supports 50% by Q3 but RESPA legal risk is the primary uncertaintyCurrent pace of 2-3pp/quarter from 44% reaches 50% by Q3 2026RESPA litigation may slow expansion
opusRun 3
72%

Linear trajectory supports 50% by Q3 but RESPA legal risk is the primary uncertainty. Current pace of 2-3pp/quarter from 44% reaches 50% by Q3 2026 provides partial support, but respa litigation may slow expansion creates counterweight. Probability: 0.72.

Linear trajectory supports 50% by Q3 but RESPA legal risk is the primary uncertaintyCurrent pace of 2-3pp/quarter from 44% reaches 50% by Q3 2026RESPA litigation may slow expansion
sonnetRun 1
53%

Base rate evidence: respa litigation may slow expansion. Partial offset from current pace of 2-3pp/quarter from 44% reaches 50% by q3 2026. Linear trajectory supports 50% by Q3 but RESPA legal risk is the primary uncertainty. Probability: 0.53.

RESPA litigation may slow expansionLinear trajectory supports 50% by Q3 but RESPA legal risk is the primary uncertaintyCurrent pace of 2-3pp/quarter from 44% reaches 50% by Q3 2026
sonnetRun 2
60%

Base rate evidence: respa litigation may slow expansion. Partial offset from current pace of 2-3pp/quarter from 44% reaches 50% by q3 2026. Linear trajectory supports 50% by Q3 but RESPA legal risk is the primary uncertainty. Probability: 0.6.

RESPA litigation may slow expansionLinear trajectory supports 50% by Q3 but RESPA legal risk is the primary uncertaintyCurrent pace of 2-3pp/quarter from 44% reaches 50% by Q3 2026
sonnetRun 3
63%

Base rate evidence: respa litigation may slow expansion. Partial offset from current pace of 2-3pp/quarter from 44% reaches 50% by q3 2026. Linear trajectory supports 50% by Q3 but RESPA legal risk is the primary uncertainty. Probability: 0.63.

RESPA litigation may slow expansionLinear trajectory supports 50% by Q3 but RESPA legal risk is the primary uncertaintyCurrent pace of 2-3pp/quarter from 44% reaches 50% by Q3 2026
haikuRun 1
70%

Linear trajectory supports 50% by Q3 but RESPA legal risk is the primary uncertainty. Balance of evidence suggests 0.7 probability. Primary support: current pace of 2-3pp/quarter from 44% reaches 50% by q3 2026. Main counterargument: respa litigation may slow expansion.

Linear trajectory supports 50% by Q3 but RESPA legal risk is the primary uncertaintyCurrent pace of 2-3pp/quarter from 44% reaches 50% by Q3 2026RESPA litigation may slow expansion
haikuRun 2
50%

Linear trajectory supports 50% by Q3 but RESPA legal risk is the primary uncertainty. Balance of evidence suggests 0.5 probability. Primary support: current pace of 2-3pp/quarter from 44% reaches 50% by q3 2026. Main counterargument: respa litigation may slow expansion.

Linear trajectory supports 50% by Q3 but RESPA legal risk is the primary uncertaintyCurrent pace of 2-3pp/quarter from 44% reaches 50% by Q3 2026RESPA litigation may slow expansion
haikuRun 3
66%

Linear trajectory supports 50% by Q3 but RESPA legal risk is the primary uncertainty. Balance of evidence suggests 0.66 probability. Primary support: current pace of 2-3pp/quarter from 44% reaches 50% by q3 2026. Main counterargument: respa litigation may slow expansion.

Linear trajectory supports 50% by Q3 but RESPA legal risk is the primary uncertaintyCurrent pace of 2-3pp/quarter from 44% reaches 50% by Q3 2026RESPA litigation may slow expansion

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Zillow reports enhanced markets connection share above 50% in any quarterly earnings report for a period ending in calendar year 2026. Resolves NO if connection share remains at or below 50% through year-end 2026.

Resolution Source

Zillow Group quarterly earnings releases or investor presentations

Source Trigger

Enhanced markets connection share at 44%, targeting 75%; acceleration signals strategy execution, stagnation suggests saturation or legal constraints

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH
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