Macro/China Stimulus Pivot/Market Detail

Will LME copper average above $10,500/ton in Q3 2026?

activeCommodity TransmissionResolves: October 15, 2026

The Condition

PBOC + State Council announce consumer-facing stimulus exceeding 2% of GDP by end of Q3 2026

External probability: 15.0%Source: Runchey Research meta-synthesis (midpoint of 10-25% range)Resolves: September 30, 2026

Our Ensemble Estimates

If condition is true

85%

Model agreement: 93%

Given demand pivot: Will LME copper average above $10,500/ton in Q3 2026?

If condition is false

68%

Model agreement: 90%

Given no demand pivot: Will LME copper average above $10,500/ton in Q3 2026?

Causal Effect

+17pp(positive)

Demand-side pivot worth ~17pp to copper sustaining above $10,500, adding consumer demand pillar to existing manufacturing demand

Unconditional probability:70.6%(blended: P(Y|T) × 15.0% + P(Y|F) × 85.0%)

Why This Matters

Tests whether a genuine demand-side stimulus pivot drives broad commodity reflation beyond the current supply-side-driven copper rally. Copper is currently elevated (+39.2% YoY) driven by EV/grid/renewables investment. A demand-side pivot would add consumer and construction demand on top of existing manufacturing demand, potentially pushing copper to new highs. The key question is whether demand-side stimulus creates additional commodity demand or merely redirects existing supply-side flows.

Resolution Criteria

LME 3-month copper contract quarterly average price for Q3 2026 (July-September) exceeds $10,500/ton based on daily settlement prices

Source: London Metal Exchange (LME) / FRED series PCOPPUSDMDate: October 15, 2026

Source Analysis

Copper/iron ore ratio reverting below 100 would signal rotation to traditional stimulus pattern

Commodity TransmissionCOMMODITY_DEMAND_REGIMEPriority: HIGH

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