Macro/China Stimulus Pivot/Market Detail

Will US non-petroleum import price index exceed 112 by September 2026?

activeTrade TransmissionResolves: November 15, 2026

The Condition

PBOC + State Council announce consumer-facing stimulus exceeding 2% of GDP by end of Q3 2026

External probability: 8.5%Source: Runchey Research meta-synthesis (midpoint of 5-12% range, post-NPC March 5)Resolves: September 30, 2026

Our Ensemble Estimates

If condition is true

25%

Model agreement: 85%

Given demand pivot: Will US non-petroleum import price index exceed 112 by September 2026?

If condition is false

Model agreement: 92%

Given no demand pivot: Will US non-petroleum import price index exceed 112 by September 2026?

Causal Effect

+16pp(positive)

Demand pivot triples probability of import prices exceeding 112. Post-NPC: IF TRUE rose +3pp as post-NPC condition now requires extraordinary policy reversal with stronger PPI response

Unconditional probability:10.4%(blended: P(Y|T) × 8.5% + P(Y|F) × 91.5%)

Why This Matters

Tests whether a China demand-side pivot breaks the zero tariff pass-through equilibrium. Currently, non-petroleum import prices are flat (+0.9% YoY at ~108.41) despite 25-100% tariffs on Chinese goods and 7.6% dollar depreciation. The meta-synthesis identifies China's 40-month PPI contraction as the force absorbing both tariffs and dollar weakness. A demand-side pivot would moderate overcapacity, ease PPI deflation, and potentially unmask the inflationary effects of tariffs and dollar depreciation -- the core paradox of this theme.

Resolution Criteria

BLS Import Price Index for non-petroleum imports (Series ID: EIUIR) exceeds 112.0 for any monthly release through September 2026 data

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Import/Export Price IndexesDate: November 15, 2026

Source Analysis

Non-petroleum import price index crossing above 110 indicates tariff pass-through overcoming deflationary offset

Trade TransmissionTRADE_DISRUPTIONPriority: HIGH

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