Macro/Oil & Geopolitical Supply Shock/Market Detail

Will headline CPI YoY exceed 4.0% by June 2026?

condition-resolvedInflation RegimeResolves: July 15, 2026

The Condition

Strait of Hormuz sustained disruption (>50% traffic reduction for 14+ days) before June 30, 2026

External probability: 100.0%Source: Polymarket Iran Conflict MarketsResolves: June 30, 2026

Our Ensemble Estimates

If condition is true

82%

Model agreement: 87%

Given Hormuz sustained disruption: Will headline CPI YoY exceed 4.0% by June 2026?

If condition is false

32%

Model agreement: 83%

Given Hormuz reopens: Will headline CPI YoY exceed 4.0% by June 2026?

Causal Effect

+50pp(higher)

Sustained Hormuz disruption increases the probability of headline CPI exceeding 4.0% by +50pp (82% vs 32%), up from +47pp. The widening reflects ACCELERATING classification and gasoline pass-through making the IF TRUE case nearly mechanical while IF FALSE rose more modestly on non-oil channels.

Unconditional probability:75.5%(blended: P(Y|T) × 100.0% + P(Y|F) × 0.0%)

Why This Matters

Tests whether sustained Hormuz disruption pushes headline inflation past the 4.0% threshold through compounding energy price pass-through.

Condition Resolved

The condition was TRUE. The IF TRUE branch is now the active prediction.

Resolution Criteria

BLS CPI report for May 2026 data (released mid-June 2026) shows all-items CPI-U YoY change exceeding 4.00%

Source: BLS Consumer Price Index / FRED series CPIAUCSLDate: July 15, 2026

Source Analysis

Inflation is driven by compounding supply-side pressures across three simultaneous channels: energy supply shock, tariff cost-push, and natural gas surge; pre-shock core PCE already sticky at 2.8-3.0% and re-accelerating

Inflation RegimePERSISTENCEPriority: HIGH

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