Macro/Oil & Geopolitical Supply Shock/Market Detail

Will US crude oil inventories (excl. SPR) fall below 400M barrels by September 2026?

condition-resolvedEnergy SupplyResolves: October 15, 2026

The Condition

Strait of Hormuz sustained disruption (>50% traffic reduction for 14+ days) before June 30, 2026

External probability: 100.0%Source: Polymarket Iran Conflict MarketsResolves: June 30, 2026

Our Ensemble Estimates

If condition is true

38%

Model agreement: 72%

Given Hormuz sustained disruption: Will US crude oil inventories (excl. SPR) fall below 400M barrels by September 2026?

If condition is false

Model agreement: 93%

Given Hormuz reopens: Will US crude oil inventories (excl. SPR) fall below 400M barrels by September 2026?

Causal Effect

+31pp(higher)

Sustained Hormuz disruption increases inventory breach probability by 31pp (38% vs 7%), down from 33pp. The reduction reflects the 140M barrel sanctions waiver and demand destruction partially offsetting the INSUFFICIENT supply classification. The causal effect remains significant but is the most moderated of the six pairs.

Unconditional probability:34.0%(blended: P(Y|T) × 100.0% + P(Y|F) × 0.0%)

Why This Matters

Tests whether sustained disruption draws down US commercial crude inventories to critically low levels.

Condition Resolved

The condition was TRUE. The IF TRUE branch is now the active prediction.

Resolution Criteria

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report shows US crude oil inventories excluding SPR below 400 million barrels for any weekly reporting date between March 1 and September 30, 2026

Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report / FRED series WCESTUS1Date: October 15, 2026

Source Analysis

Deliverable offsets without SPR total only 1.5-2.5 mbpd against a base case disruption of 3-5 mbpd

Energy SupplySUPPLY_DISRUPTION_SEVERITYPriority: HIGH

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