RuncheyResearch
Macro/Oil & Geopolitical Supply Shock/Market Detail

Will the trade-weighted dollar index (DTWEXBGS) exceed 130 by September 2026?

condition-resolvedGlobal SpilloverResolves: October 15, 2026

The Condition

Strait of Hormuz sustained disruption (>50% traffic reduction for 14+ days) before June 30, 2026

External probability: 100.0%Source: Polymarket Iran Conflict MarketsResolves: June 30, 2026

Our Ensemble Estimates

If condition is true
42%
Model agreement: 74%

Given Hormuz sustained disruption: Will the trade-weighted dollar index (DTWEXBGS) exceed 130 by September 2026?

If condition is false
8%
Model agreement: 91%

Given Hormuz reopens: Will the trade-weighted dollar index (DTWEXBGS) exceed 130 by September 2026?

Causal Effect

+34pp(positive)

Sustained Hormuz disruption increases dollar >130 probability by 34pp (42% vs 8%), up from 30pp. The widening reflects the FOMC hawkish posture creating a conditional chain from sustained disruption to potential rate hike while IF FALSE remains at tail risk. The dollar market remains the most ambiguous of the six pairs.

Unconditional probability:37.6%(blended: P(Y|T) × 100.0% + P(Y|F) × 0.0%)

Why This Matters

Tests whether sustained Hormuz disruption drives the dollar into a strong safe-haven regime.

Condition Resolved

The condition was TRUE. The IF TRUE branch is now the active prediction.

Resolution Criteria

FRED series DTWEXBGS (Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index) exceeds 130.00 for any weekly observation between March 1 and September 30, 2026

Source: Federal Reserve / FRED series DTWEXBGSDate: October 15, 2026

Source Analysis

The dollar is shifting from a 12-month weakening trend (-7.6% trade-weighted) to a strengthening regime driven by safe-haven demand, U.S. structural energy advantage, and petrodollar recycling

Global SpilloverDOLLAR_REGIMEPriority: HIGH
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