Macro/Oil & Geopolitical Supply Shock/Market Detail

Will initial jobless claims 4-week average exceed 250K by September 2026?

condition-resolvedLabor DynamicsResolves: October 15, 2026

The Condition

Strait of Hormuz sustained disruption (>50% traffic reduction for 14+ days) before June 30, 2026

External probability: 100.0%Source: Polymarket Iran Conflict MarketsResolves: June 30, 2026

Our Ensemble Estimates

If condition is true

72%

Model agreement: 82%

Given Hormuz sustained disruption: Will initial jobless claims 4-week average exceed 250K by September 2026?

If condition is false

35%

Model agreement: 78%

Given Hormuz reopens: Will initial jobless claims 4-week average exceed 250K by September 2026?

Causal Effect

+37pp(higher)

Sustained Hormuz disruption increases claims breach probability by 37pp (72% vs 35%), up from 32pp. The causal delta widened because -92K NFP makes the hiring freeze → layoff transition more certain under sustained disruption while IF FALSE sees only modest increase from pre-existing weakness.

Unconditional probability:67.2%(blended: P(Y|T) × 100.0% + P(Y|F) × 0.0%)

Why This Matters

Tests whether sustained Hormuz disruption transmits to actual layoffs in the labor market.

Condition Resolved

The condition was TRUE. The IF TRUE branch is now the active prediction.

Resolution Criteria

DOL Weekly Initial Claims report shows the 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims exceeding 250,000 for any week between March 1 and September 30, 2026

Source: DOL Employment & Training Administration / FRED series IC4WSADate: October 15, 2026

Source Analysis

Labor market is loosening with V/U below 1.0, quits rate at 2.0% concern threshold, JOLTS openings down 14.6% in 6 months

Labor DynamicsLABOR_TIGHTNESSPriority: HIGH

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