Archived research. Macro coverage is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive
Will non-petroleum import price index exceed 112 by October 2026?
The Condition
US blanket tariffs (Section 122 or successor authority) of at least 10% remain in effect on July 24, 2026
Our Ensemble Estimates
Given tariffs persist: Will non-petroleum import price index exceed 112 by October 2026?
Given tariffs expire: Will non-petroleum import price index exceed 112 by October 2026?
Causal Effect
Tariff persistence adds 40pp to probability of import prices exceeding 112
Why This Matters
Tests whether tariff pass-through accelerates once inventory buffers are exhausted. The non-petroleum import price index currently stands at 108.41, with only 6% tariff pass-through after 12 months as firms absorbed costs through margin compression. Beige Book contacts report pre-tariff inventories are depleting, signaling the absorption phase is ending within 2-6 months. If blanket tariffs persist, the 15% Section 122 rate plus the 7.6% dollar depreciation (~2-3pp import cost pressure) should produce accelerated pass-through once the inventory buffer is exhausted. The 112 threshold represents approximately 3.3% import price inflation from current levels.
Resolution Criteria
BLS Import/Export Price Indexes report for September 2026 data (released mid-October 2026) shows the non-petroleum import price index at or above 112.0
Source Analysis
Non-petroleum import prices at 108.41; absorption buffers depleting with only 6% pass-through after 12 months — Beige Book signals acceleration within 2-6 months