ADSK Q4 FY2026: All-Metric Beat at 19x PE, All 7 Signals Confirmed, Confidence Upgraded

Autodesk delivered an all-metric beat in Q4 FY2026 — revenue, EPS, billings, margins, and RPO all above the high end of guidance — and the stock dropped ~19% after hours. That disconnect between operational performance and market reaction is itself a data point. After incorporating the quarter across all forecast markets, we have maintained the “price-below-value” classification and upgraded confidence from MEDIUM to MEDIUM-HIGH. All seven signals confirmed, four strengthened.

MEDIUM Confidence

Prior assessment

MEDIUM-HIGH Confidence

Updated assessment

$236

~19x forward PE

$1.96B

Q4 Revenue

+19% YoY

$2.85

Non-GAAP EPS

Beat $2.64 by 8%

$8.3B

Total RPO

+20% YoY

$972M

Q4 Free Cash Flow

FY27 guide $2.7-2.8B

The Numbers: A Clean Beat Across Every Metric

Q4 FY2026 revenue of $1.96B (+19% YoY) came in above the high end of guidance across every metric Autodesk reports. Billings surged +33%, non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 38% (+120bps YoY), and non-GAAP EPS of $2.85 beat consensus of $2.64 by 8%. Free cash flow of $972M in the quarter underscores the cash conversion strength that characterizes the subscription transition.

The forward commitment picture was equally strong. RPO reached $8.3B (+20%) with current RPO at $5.5B (+23%), both confirming sustained demand visibility. Segment performance was broad-based: Make segment grew +23%, Manufacturing exceeded 20%, and Construction accelerated. This is not a single-product beat — it reflects structural demand across verticals.

FY2027 guidance came in at $8.10-$8.17B (~11-12% growth) with non-GAAP margins of 38.5-39% and FCF of $2.7-2.8B. Notably, organic constant-currency growth is guided at ~10-11% as the new transaction model (NTM) contribution diminishes to ~1.5pp. Management guided organic CC growth of 10-11%, which compares favorably to our pre-earnings estimate of 8-9% — an upside surprise on the underlying business trajectory.

Signal Confirmation: All 7 Unchanged, 4 Strengthened

Our 7-lens analysis produced no signal reclassifications — every label held. But four signals saw their underlying evidence strengthen materially:

REVENUE_DURABILITY — DURABLEConfirmed

COMPETITIVE_POSITION — DEFENSIBLEConfirmed

NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP — DIVERGINGWidened

EXPECTATIONS_PRICED — MODESTStrengthened

ACCOUNTING_INTEGRITY — CONCERNINGUnchanged

GOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENT — MIXED / ALIGNEDUnchanged

REGULATORY_EXPOSURE — MINIMALUnchanged

The After-Hours Decline IS the Signal

The ~19% after-hours decline on an all-metric beat is itself evidence supporting our NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP classification. The market moved from $290 at the time of our initial analysis to $236 — yet the fundamental picture improved on every dimension. At ~19x forward PE (bottom decile for a software company growing 11-12% with 38%+ margins and 5.4% FCF yield), the embedded expectations are now even more modest than they were before. The narrative has shifted from the DOJ investigation hangover toward restructuring execution risk and AI anxiety — but neither is priced rationally against the actual numbers.

Prediction Ensemble: 3 Resolved, 5 Updated

Three markets resolved — all YES — with an average Brier score of 0.08 (green). The ensemble was well-calibrated and directionally correct on all three threshold events:

FY2027 revenue guidance > $7.80BYESBrier 0.10

Q4 non-GAAP margin ≥ 38%YESBrier 0.05

RPO growth exceeds revenue growthYESBrier 0.09

Five active markets have been updated with post-earnings predictions, all shifting favorably. This calibration feedback — accurate directional calls with tight Brier scores — gives us higher confidence that the remaining active markets are similarly well-anchored.

AI Strategy: From Narrative to Numbers

The AI story deepened materially this quarter. AutoConstrain has processed 3.8 million constraints with a two-thirds acceptance rate — demonstrating real workflow integration, not vaporware. API monetization is progressing, and the World Labs partnership represents a credible entry into generative design. This moves AI from the “narrative only” category toward measurable product adoption, supporting the COMPETITIVE_POSITION confirmation.

GTM Phase 2 Restructuring: The Real New Risk

The most material new information is the Phase 2 GTM restructuring — a 7% reduction in force that touches customer-facing sales roles. Restructuring during strong demand is unusual and creates execution risk around account coverage and enterprise deal flow. This bears close monitoring: if enterprise pipeline metrics deteriorate in Q1 FY2027, it would represent a self-inflicted wound on what is otherwise an acceleration story. The cost savings may also partially explain the strong margin guidance — margin expansion via headcount reduction during an investigation period carries different implications than margin expansion via operating leverage.

Organic Growth Surprise

FY2027 organic constant-currency growth guided at 10-11% versus our pre-earnings estimate of 8-9%. As the NTM contribution diminishes to ~1.5pp, the underlying business trajectory is stronger than we modeled. Combined with a forward PE of ~19x — bottom decile for a software company with this margin and cash flow profile — and a FCF yield of ~5.4-5.6%, the valuation mismatch has widened. The market appears to be pricing Autodesk as a low-growth utility while the company delivers double-digit growth with expanding margins and $2.7B+ in guided free cash flow.

Thesis Assessment: Price Below Value, Confidence Upgraded

Classification unchanged: price-below-value. Confidence upgraded from MEDIUM to MEDIUM-HIGH. The upgrade reflects: (1) all-metric beat with zero signal reclassifications, (2) excellent prediction ensemble calibration (avg Brier 0.08), (3) organic growth guidance above our estimate, and (4) a price decline that widens the valuation gap rather than closing it.

The counterweights preventing a full HIGH confidence rating remain: the ACCOUNTING_INTEGRITY signal at CONCERNING (the DOJ investigation is unresolved), the GTM restructuring creating near-term execution risk, and the NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP itself — which, while confirming our thesis, also means the market may have information or concerns we have not fully captured. The gap between operational performance and market valuation is now wider than at any point in our coverage, which increases both the opportunity and the humility required.

What to Watch Next

1.GTM restructuring execution — Monitor Q1 FY2027 enterprise pipeline and deal velocity for signs the 7% RIF is disrupting account coverage

2.DOJ investigation resolution — ACCOUNTING_INTEGRITY remains CONCERNING; any formal action or settlement would be a material catalyst in either direction

3.NTM contribution fade — As the new transaction model tailwind drops to ~1.5pp, organic growth must sustain 10%+ on its own merits by H2 FY2027

4.AI product monetization — AutoConstrain adoption metrics and API revenue contribution must progress from “promising” to “material” within FY2027

5.Narrative gap convergence — At $236 and ~19x forward PE with 5.4% FCF yield, the valuation implies ~5-8% growth; either the multiple re-rates or fundamentals must decelerate for the gap to close

Full thesis assessment with market-by-market analysis, signal table, resolved market calibration, and key monitoring triggers

ADSK Full Thesis Assessment