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Earnings PreviewADSK

ADSK Earnings Preview: 68% Guidance Beat at 19x Forward PE

Matt RuncheySHORELINE, WA — February 24, 2026 · 9:45 PM PST3 min
ADSK Full AnalysisADSK Forecasts
The Core Question

Autodesk's SEC and DOJ investigations both closed without charges in August 2025, yet the stock still trades at ~19x forward PE — the bottom decile of its 5-year range and well below the 25-35x software peer group. The market prices 5-8% EPS growth while the company delivers 20%+. Our ensemble assigns 68% probability Thursday's FY2027 guidance exceeds $7.80B. Is the narrative finally updating?

Our seven-lens analysis ran 15 debates across accounting integrity, revenue durability, competitive position, and governance alignment. Read the full analysis here.

Ensemble Forecast

Key Market
FY2027 Revenue Guidance >$7.80B
Probability
68%
Model Agreement
0.92
Strong consensus

Our nine-model ensemble assigns 68% probability that Autodesk guides FY2027 revenue above $7.80B — the first guidance year where NTM transition inflation normalizes, making it a direct test of underlying organic growth. Margin expansion also appears likely at 78% probability of hitting 38%+, and RPO health is strong at 70%. Meanwhile, the existential AI disruption threat registers at just 5% probability with near-unanimous 0.97 agreement. See all eight markets on the ADSK forecasting page.

Earnings Scorecard — February 26

FY2027 Revenue Guidance
Bull: >$7.80BBear: <$7.50B
68% probability at 0.92 agreement — the highest-information-gain market. This is the first guidance year where NTM transition inflation normalizes, making it a direct test of organic growth. Above $7.80B implies 10%+ organic growth, contradicting the 5-8% embedded in the ~19x PE. Below $7.50B would validate the compressed multiple and shift NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP toward ALIGNED.
Q4 Non-GAAP Operating Margin
Bull: ≥38%Bear: <36%
78% probability at 0.93 agreement. Q3 hit 38% and the January 2026 restructuring (1,000 roles) provides an additional tailwind. The Starboard-pushed 41% target is the primary bridge from revenue growth to EPS growth. Hitting 38%+ for the second consecutive quarter would demonstrate the margin expansion is durable, not one-time.
RPO Growth vs. Revenue Growth
Bull: RPO > RevenueBear: RPO < Revenue
70% probability at 0.92 agreement. Autodesk does not disclose NRR — RPO-to-revenue differential is the best available retention proxy. Q3 showed RPO 20% vs revenue 18%. A reversal would be the first quantifiable evidence that the assumed 105-115% NRR may be overstated, potentially triggering the NRR Revelation Cascade scenario (2-6% probability) that would shift 4 signals simultaneously.
Governance Commentary
Bull: Reform signalsBear: No comment
57% probability of material comp reform disclosure (resolves in DEF 14A, not at earnings) at 0.89 agreement — the lowest model agreement, reflecting genuine uncertainty. The Fugazi Filter rates GOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENT as MIXED because compensation metrics that were manipulated may not have been reformed. Thursday's call may signal direction. The governance discount is estimated at ~35% of the total narrative gap.
AECO Segment Growth
Bull: >12% YoYBear: <10% YoY
87% probability growth stays above 10% at 0.96 agreement. AECO is 50% of revenue and the primary cyclical concentration risk. Three lenses flagged it, but the ensemble strongly expects subscription model resilience as NTM tailwinds normalize. Sub-10% growth would shift REVENUE_DURABILITY from DURABLE to CONDITIONAL. Sustained strength would confirm that the subscription model holds through the first post-NTM normalization period.
Current Assessment
Autodesk is classified at “Price Below Value” with medium confidence. The ensemble tilts constructively across all operational metrics — 68% guidance beat, 78% margin expansion, 70% RPO health, 87% AECO resilience, 95% no AI disruption. The primary drag is a governance discount (~35% of the narrative gap) that may narrow as comp reforms are disclosed and the class action resolves. At ~19x forward PE with 20%+ EPS growth, the narrative-reality gap remains the widest in coverage. Read the full seven-lens analysis. We will update within 24 hours of the February 26 earnings release.

Seven-lens analysis covering accounting integrity, revenue durability, competitive position, governance alignment, insider behavior, narrative-reality gap, and tail risk — 10 signals across 15 structured debates plus eight active prediction markets

ADSK Full AnalysisADSK Forecasts

This report was generated by the Runchey Research AI Ensemble using primary SEC data and reviewed by Matthew Runchey for accuracy.

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See our Editorial Integrity & Disclosure Policy and Terms of Service.