HIMS Earnings Preview: GLP-1 Revenue at Coin-Flip Odds

Disclosure: As of 2026-02-10, the Runchey Research Model Trading Fund holds put options in HIMS. Per our Editorial Policy, these are classified as Event-Driven holdings and may be adjusted immediately following the relevant catalyst event. View our full Editorial Integrity & Disclosure Policy.

Earnings results published. 2 of 7 signals escalated. Read the full analysis: HIMS Q4 2025: $1B Convert Confirmed, 2 Stress Signals Escalated

The Core Question

HIMS faces 5 concurrent legal proceedings targeting 25-70% of revenue, a DOJ criminal referral, and a 70%+ stock decline. The ensemble assigns coin-flip odds (52%) that Q4 weight loss revenue falls below $175M — meaning the GLP-1 revenue trajectory is genuinely uncertain, not clearly in free fall.

For the full five-lens analysis covering regulatory exposure, revenue durability, insider alignment, and stress resilience, read the deep dive here.

Ensemble Forecast

Key Market

Q4 Weight Loss Revenue <$175M

Probability

52%

Model Agreement

0.92

Strong consensus on ambiguity

Our nine-model ensemble assigns 52% probability that Q4 weight loss specialty revenue falls below $175M — effectively a coin flip. GLP-1 revenue already declined from ~$230M (Q1) to ~$190M (Q2 2025) after the FDA shortage declaration, and the Feb 5-7 oral semaglutide launch-suspension demonstrated real-time regulatory control. See all seven active markets on the HIMS forecasting page.

Earnings Scorecard — February 24

Weight Loss Specialty Revenue

Bull: >$200MBear: <$175M

The central revenue durability question. Declined $230M→$190M through Q1-Q2. Below $175M confirms accelerating decline; above $200M would suggest resilience the regulatory assault has not broken.

Total Subscriber Growth YoY

Bull: >20%Bear: <15%

Decelerated from 38%→31%→20% across Q1-Q3. Ensemble assigns 65% probability below 15%. Below that threshold suggests brand damage is spilling beyond GLP-1 into the core business.

Legal & Regulatory Commentary

Bull: Settlement signalsBear: New proceedings

Management's first detailed response to Feb 2026 events (DOJ referral, FDA “decisive steps,” Novo patent suit). Any signal of settlement or consent decree would de-escalate; new proceedings would widen the already-existential risk surface.

$6.5B 2030 Revenue Target

Bull: WalkbackBear: Maintained

Set during 111% YoY growth. Ensemble assigns only 28% probability of a walkback. Paradoxically, withdrawing the target would improve management credibility; maintaining it while facing 5 concurrent proceedings would widen the narrative-action gap.

Non-GLP-1 Revenue Growth

Bull: >30% YoYBear: <20% YoY

The core telehealth platform (~$1.4-1.6B floor) is the survival anchor. Core grew ~30% YoY in Q1 but was flat-to-down sequentially in Q2. Below 20% would erode the “durable floor” thesis that 3 lenses rely on.

Current Assessment

HIMS is classified as “Price Above Value” at medium confidence. The stock trades at ~$17 after a 70%+ decline from highs, embedding substantial impairment. However, the ensemble finds the most probable path — FDA restriction (65%), subscriber deceleration (65%), and ambiguous GLP-1 trajectory (52%) — suggests the current price may not fully reflect the compounding effect of simultaneous headwinds. Read the full thesis assessment. We will update within 24 hours of the February 24 earnings release.

Full five-lens analysis with regulatory risk mapping, insider alignment assessment, and all seven active prediction markets

HIMS Full Analysis HIMS Forecasts Deep Dive Blog