Trade Journal

Committee approved OPEN at 2.16%. MEDIUM confidence price-below-value with 8 active markets (0.89-0.97 agreement). Accounting scandal overhang creates narrative-reality gap at 19x forward PE while delivering 20%+ EPS growth.

Committee approved OPEN at 2.05%. MEDIUM confidence price-below-value with 6 active markets. Stock trades near cash value ($8.1B) with pipeline catalysts (74% intl flu approval, 37% oncology Phase 3). New Healthcare sector provides portfolio diversification.

Committee approved OPEN at 2.3%. MEDIUM confidence price-below-value with 7 active markets. At 8x trailing earnings and 6x FCF, stock prices compounding catastrophe that ensemble rejects at 3-11% probability with near-unanimous agreement.

Committee approved OPEN at 2.02%. MEDIUM confidence price-below-value with 8 active markets. At 17x forward FCF with first GAAP profit and $945M FCF, price embeds conservative 8-9% guidance rather than documented guide-low-raise-high pattern.

Committee approved OPEN at 3.16%. MEDIUM confidence price-below-value with 9 active markets. Minor magnitude produces higher raw Kelly (0.126) due to lower odds denominator. Quarter-Kelly at 3.16% reflects strong payment network fundamentals despite regulatory overhang (CCCA 36%, DOJ 28%).

Committee approved OPEN at 2.3%. MEDIUM confidence price-below-value thesis with 7 active markets and 0.88-0.95 model agreement. Quarter-Kelly sizing at 2.3% — near minimum threshold — reflects genuine uncertainty around Duo Agent fulcrum and DBNRR trajectory.

Committee approved OPEN. MEDIUM confidence price-below-value thesis with 8 active markets. Quarter-Kelly sizing at 3.6% driven by minor magnitude odds (low asymmetry) producing higher raw Kelly. Fractional shares required due to high share price.

Committee approved OPEN. MEDIUM confidence price-below-value thesis with 8 active markets. Quarter-Kelly sizing at 2.1% reflects moderate edge with AI efficiency breakthrough as key risk.

Committee approved OPEN. HIGH confidence price-below-value thesis with 9 active markets. Quarter-Kelly sizing at 3.0% reflects strong edge. Immediate re-evaluation after Abel shareholder letter (~Feb 28).

Committee approved OPEN. HIGH confidence price-below-value thesis with 8 active markets and 0.88-0.99 model agreement. Quarter-Kelly sizing at 3.5% reflects strong edge with adequate tail risk buffer.