Black Swan Beacon
What could go catastrophically wrong that nobody is watching?
Additional derived signals may emerge during analysis based on company-specific findings.
The Black Swan Beacon is the meta-analytical lens that runs after all other lenses complete. It audits the committee's collective output for shared assumptions, compound failure scenarios, and tail catalysts that individual lenses structurally cannot detect.
The multi-lens architecture creates strong within-lens adversarial testing, but NOT cross-lens assumption challenging. Each lens tests its own domain rigorously while taking other domains' assumptions as given. The Black Swan Beacon exists to fill this gap — finding the risks that everyone assumed away.
Named for Nassim Taleb's concept of low-probability, high-impact events that are systematically underestimated. This lens doesn't predict black swans — it maps where the committee is most vulnerable to them.
Signals Produced
What This Lens Catches
Shared assumption fragility
Example: All lenses assume regulatory stability, but political regime is shifting
Look for: Assumptions repeated across 3+ lenses without independent testing
Compound failure scenarios
Example: Revenue decline + debt maturity + competitive entry simultaneously
Look for: Correlation between risks flagged by different lenses
Reverse stress tests
Example: What single event would invalidate the entire thesis?
Look for: Events that cascade across multiple signals
Evidence gap clustering
Example: E0 or E1 evidence on assumptions critical to 3+ lenses
Look for: Low-evidence assumptions with high downstream impact
Consensus fragility
Example: Strong agreement but reasoning paths are shallow or circular
Look for: Agreement score vs reasoning depth divergence
Analysis Stages
Assumption Mapping
What assumptions are shared across 3+ lenses without independent testing?
Compound Scenario Construction
What combinations of individually-flagged risks could cascade?
Reverse Stress Testing
What single events would invalidate the committee's thesis?
Evidence Gap Analysis
Where are E0/E1 gaps on high-impact assumptions?
Tail Risk Quantification
Probability ranges and impact severity for compound scenarios
When This Lens Applies
Apply When
- 4+ standard lenses have been completed for the equity
- Meta-synthesis shows strong consensus across lenses
- Complex business with multiple interacting risk vectors
- Industry facing structural transformation or regulatory upheaval
Skip When
- Fewer than 3 lenses completed (insufficient material to audit)
- Simple business model with limited cross-lens interaction
- Replace individual lens analysis (it audits, not duplicates)
- Predict specific black swan events or their timing
- Assess individual business fundamentals (that's what the other lenses do)
- Make buy/sell recommendations
- Run without sufficient prior lens outputs to audit