Archived research. The era-1 framework is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive
Myth Meter
Is market sentiment detached from operational reality?
Additional derived signals may emerge during analysis based on company-specific findings.
The Myth Meter compares market narrative and sentiment against operational fundamentals, measuring the gap between what the market believes and what the numbers show.
This lens asks: "What story is the market telling about this company, and does it match operational reality?" The goal is not to determine if the stock is over/undervalued, but to measure disconnects between perception and fundamentals.
Signals Produced
What This Lens Catches
Narrative ahead of fundamentals
Example: "Growth story" but growth is decelerating
Look for: Revenue acceleration vs. narrative
Narrative ignores problems
Example: Bullish sentiment despite deteriorating margins
Look for: Margin trends vs. analyst tone
Narrative inverts reality
Example: Perceived as growth when actually declining
Look for: Fundamental trends vs. media coverage
Modest expectations
Example: Price implies low growth that seems achievable
Look for: Implied growth rate calculation
Demanding expectations
Example: Price implies acceleration that's aggressive
Look for: Required growth vs. historical
Impossible expectations
Example: Price implies growth that can't happen
Look for: TAM constraints, market share limits
Analysis Stages
Narrative Identification
What does the market believe about this company?
Operational Reality
What do the fundamentals actually show?
Gap Analysis
Where does narrative diverge from reality?
Expectations Extraction
What must be true for current price to be justified?
- Determine if stock is over/undervalued
- Provide price targets or fair value estimates
- Predict price movements
- Make buy/sell recommendations
- Assess accounting quality (that's Fugazi Filter)