RuncheyResearch
All Concepts
Signal

Expectations Priced

What must be true for current price to be rational?

Assessment Spectrum

MODEST
DEMANDING
STRETCHED
IMPOSSIBLE
BestWorst
How This Signal Affects Analysis
This signal provides a standardized assessment that makes it easy to compare across different companies. When multiple lenses produce this signal, disagreements surface where the evidence is ambiguous.

Assessment Labels

Every analysis assigns one of 4 categorical labels to this signal. Labels represent a spectrum from best to worst assessment.

MODESTBest outcome

Current price implies achievable expectations. Embedded assumptions are reasonable given historical performance.

DEMANDINGPositive outcome

Current price implies aggressive but not impossible expectations. Requires strong execution to justify.

STRETCHEDConcerning outcome

Current price implies very optimistic expectations. Would require significant improvement from current trajectory.

IMPOSSIBLEWorst outcome

Current price implies expectations that cannot realistically be met. Embedded assumptions require unprecedented performance.

What This Signal Captures

Implied growth ratesImplied marginsDuration riskTerminal value assumptions

Lenses That Produce This Signal

Multiple lenses can assess the same signal independently. When lenses disagree, we surface the conflict rather than hiding it.

Prospectus Probe

Is this a real business or a liquidity exit?

Myth Meter

Is market sentiment detached from operational reality?

Special Constraints
  • Must state specific implied requirements
  • PROHIBITED from concluding mispricing/overvaluation/undervaluation
  • PROHIBITED from price targets or fair value estimates
  • Frame as "current price requires X" not "stock is Y"
All ConceptsLearn about Evidence Levels