Gravy Gauge
Is this revenue durable, or does it depend on conditions that could change?
Additional derived signals may emerge during analysis based on company-specific findings.
The Gravy Gauge detects revenue that looks real but depends on fragile external conditions — regulatory arbitrage, customer concentration, platform dependency, or resource constraints.
This lens asks: "Is this gravy train sustainable, or is it one rule change away from collapse?"
Signals Produced
What This Lens Catches
Regulatory arbitrage
Example: Revenue from billing code loopholes
Look for: Policy dependency disclosures, CMS/FDA exposure
Subsidy dependency
Example: Profitability requires tax credits
Look for: IRA credits, government subsidies in financials
Platform lock-in
Example: App store takes 30%, could change terms
Look for: Platform concentration, terms of service risk
Monopsonist buyer
Example: 50%+ revenue from one government agency
Look for: Customer concentration disclosure
Resource constraint
Example: Data center growth limited by grid capacity
Look for: Supply chain dependencies, capacity limitations
Analysis Stages
Revenue Composition
Where does the money actually come from?
Regulatory Dependency
Does revenue depend on specific policies or loopholes?
Customer Concentration
Is there a dominant buyer whose constraints matter?
External Constraint Mapping
What could kill this revenue stream?
Sustainability Timeline
If it breaks, how fast does revenue disappear?
- Assess accounting manipulation (that's Fugazi Filter)
- Assess funding/solvency (that's Stress Scanner)
- Make buy/sell recommendations
- Predict timing of regulatory changes