Archived research. The era-1 framework is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive
Gravy Gauge
Is this revenue durable, or does it depend on conditions that could change?
Additional derived signals may emerge during analysis based on company-specific findings.
The Gravy Gauge detects revenue that looks real but depends on fragile external conditions — regulatory arbitrage, customer concentration, platform dependency, or resource constraints.
This lens asks: "Is this gravy train sustainable, or is it one rule change away from collapse?"
Signals Produced
What This Lens Catches
Regulatory arbitrage
Example: Revenue from billing code loopholes
Look for: Policy dependency disclosures, CMS/FDA exposure
Subsidy dependency
Example: Profitability requires tax credits
Look for: IRA credits, government subsidies in financials
Platform lock-in
Example: App store takes 30%, could change terms
Look for: Platform concentration, terms of service risk
Monopsonist buyer
Example: 50%+ revenue from one government agency
Look for: Customer concentration disclosure
Resource constraint
Example: Data center growth limited by grid capacity
Look for: Supply chain dependencies, capacity limitations
Analysis Stages
Revenue Composition
Where does the money actually come from?
Regulatory Dependency
Does revenue depend on specific policies or loopholes?
Customer Concentration
Is there a dominant buyer whose constraints matter?
External Constraint Mapping
What could kill this revenue stream?
Sustainability Timeline
If it breaks, how fast does revenue disappear?
- Assess accounting manipulation (that's Fugazi Filter)
- Assess funding/solvency (that's Stress Scanner)
- Make buy/sell recommendations
- Predict timing of regulatory changes