NVO
Disclosure: As of 2026-02-10, the Runchey Research Model Trading Fund holds a long position in NVO. View our full Editorial Integrity & Disclosure Policy.
20-F Annual Report: All Signals Confirmed
FY2025 20-F review confirms FRAGILE revenue (gross margin -369 bps, Ozempic deceleration to +5.6%), ELEVATED regulatory exposure, and CONTESTED competitive position. Key new data: USD 4.2B 340B windfall in Q1 2026, DKK 130.6B manufacturing buildout, and two new securities class actions. No signal changes.
Read the full analysis"Is Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 dominance ending, or is the 40-66% stock decline an overreaction to temporary headwinds?"
**UPDATE (Feb 3, 2026):** Management guided for -5% to -13% revenue decline in 2026 — a dramatic reversal from growth. Stock down 13% on the news. REVENUE_DURABILITY downgraded from CONDITIONAL to FRAGILE. Original: Novo Nordisk lost 9.3pp of global GLP-1 market share to Eli Lilly. MFN pricing agreement is now the primary headwind.
Executive Summary
Cross-lens roll-up assessment
**MATERIAL UPDATE (Feb 3, 2026):** Novo Nordisk has moved from a value rotation candidate to a restructuring story. Management's guidance for -5% to -13% revenue decline in 2026 — reversing from +10% growth in 2025 — triggered REVENUE_DURABILITY downgrade to FRAGILE. The MFN agreement with US Administration creates structural pricing ceiling; US Operations already contracted -7% in Q4 2025. The bull case now requires: revenue decline at shallow end (-5%), Wegovy pill creating growth, CagriSema delivering >20% weight loss, and Lilly stumbles.
Signal downgrade to FRAGILE reflects explicit management acknowledgment of revenue contraction. This is now a restructuring story, not a growth story. Key triggers: Q1 2026 revenue trajectory, Wegovy pill adoption rate, CagriSema REDEFINE 4, MFN implementation details.
Key Takeaways
- •**SIGNAL CHANGE:** REVENUE_DURABILITY downgraded CONDITIONAL → FRAGILE — management guides -5% to -13% revenue decline; US already contracting -7% Q4
- •MFN agreement with US Administration creates structural pricing ceiling for Medicare Part D, Medicaid, and self-pay (Wegovy $199/month offers)
- •REGULATORY_EXPOSURE (ELEVATED) and COMPETITIVE_POSITION (CONTESTED) unchanged — regulatory materializing as expected, 9.3pp market share loss confirmed
- •CagriSema REDEFINE 4 and Wegovy pill adoption (~50K weekly Rx at launch) are now critical swing factors for potential recovery
Key Tensions
- •Guidance range is wide (-5% to -13%) — shallow end could stabilize narrative, deep end confirms structural decline
- •Wegovy pill at ~50K weekly Rx — net volume growth or injectable cannibalization?
- •Patent expiry in international markets adds new geographic risk not previously quantified
- •Stock down 13% on guidance but already down 40-66% from peak — is bear case priced in?
Gravy Gauge
Is revenue durable or fragile?
Key Metrics
Key FindingsClick to expand details
Signal AssessmentsClick for full context
| Signal | Scale | Assessment | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
Revenue Durability | FRAGILE | 1Single Source | |
Regulatory Exposure | ELEVATED | 2Corroborated |
Model Debates
Cross-Lens Insights
Where Lenses Agree
- 20-F CONFIRMATION: All signals confirmed with full-year data (Feb 19, 2026)
- SIGNAL CHANGE: Revenue now FRAGILE (Feb 3, 2026)
- Regulatory exposure is ELEVATED — confirmed, not upgraded
- CagriSema and Wegovy pill are now critical recovery vectors
The following publicly available documents were collected and extracted into a structured fact dossier that powered this analysis.
SEC Filing
- Annual Report (20-F) — FY2025 (Feb 4, 2026)
- Annual Report (20-F) — FY2024
- Current Report (6-K) — Q4 2025 (Feb 2, 2026)
- Current Report (6-K) — Q4 2025 (Jan 31, 2026)
- Current Report (6-K) — Q3 2025 (Dec 22, 2025)
- Current Report (6-K) — Q3 2025 (Nov 25, 2025)
Earnings Transcript
- Q4 2025 / FY2025 Earnings Call (Feb 4, 2026)
- Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Research Document
- FDA Compounding Regulatory Update
- Bear Case Summary