Archived research. The era-1 framework is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive
Sector Regime Identifier
What regime is this sector operating in, and is it about to shift?
The Sector Regime Identifier is a second-order lens that synthesizes the outputs of all 5 first-order sector lenses to classify the sector's current operating regime. Sectors operate in distinct regimes — growth expansion, mature optimization, cyclical contraction, structural disruption — and the regime determines which strategies succeed. Applying the wrong regime's playbook is the most dangerous analytical error.
This lens runs AFTER all 5 other sector lenses complete and consumes their output.json files as input. It follows the same pattern as the Black Swan Beacon in equity analysis: a meta-level synthesis that surfaces what no individual lens can see alone.
Signals Produced
Sector Regime
SECTOR_REGIME
What This Lens Catches
| Pattern | Example | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| All systems go | Revenue accelerating, competition fragmenting, capex expanding, no disruption threat | GROWTH_EXPANSION |
| Steady state | Stable oligopoly, disciplined capex, protected margins, adaptation matching threats | MATURE_OPTIMIZATION |
| Downcycle in progress | Decelerating momentum, consolidation wave, capex contraction, margin pressure | CYCLICAL_CONTRACTION |
| Paradigm breaking | Existential disruption, value chain shifting, leader denying, new entrants scaling | STRUCTURAL_DISRUPTION |
Analysis Stages
Signal Synthesis
Compile all 10 signals from the 5 sector lenses into a unified picture
Regime Classification
Which of the 4 regimes best fits the current signal pattern?
Regime Confidence Assessment
How confident are we? Identify conflicting evidence.
Regime Shift Detection
Are there early indicators that a regime change is imminent?
Implications Synthesis
What does this regime mean for the companies in the sector?
Required Sources
Must Have
COMPETITIVE_DYNAMICS and RELATIVE_MOMENTUM signals
Sector lens outputs
CONSOLIDATION_TRAJECTORY and ACQUISITION_VULNERABILITY signals
Sector lens outputs
CAPITAL_CYCLE_POSITION and RETURN_TRAJECTORY signals
Sector lens outputs
VALUE_CONCENTRATION and MARGIN_PRESSURE signals
Sector lens outputs
DISRUPTION_EXPOSURE and ADAPTATION_SPEED signals
Sector lens outputs
Enhances Analysis
Aggregate financial trends, signal heatmap across constituents
Internal (equity lens outputs)
Relative performance vs. S&P 500, sector rotation signals
Market data
Employment trend for the sector's NAICS code
BLS / FRED
What This Lens Does NOT Do
- Does not independently analyze raw financial data (first-order lenses handle that)
- Does not assess individual company quality or competitive position
- Does not produce company-level valuations or assessments
- Does not override individual lens conclusions
When This Lens Applies
Always runs as the final sector lens — After all 5 first-order sector lenses complete.
Technical Details
Related Sector Lenses
Competitive Chessboard
Who is winning, who is losing, and why?
Consolidation Compass
Is M&A reshaping this sector, and who acquires vs. gets acquired?
Capital Cycle Gauge
Is the sector over-investing or under-investing relative to demand?
Value Chain Mapper
Where does value accrue in this sector's stack?
Disruption Vector Scanner
What forces could structurally reshape this sector within 3 years?