Competitive Chessboard
Who is winning, who is losing, and why?
The Competitive Chessboard maps the relative competitive positions of companies within a sector, identifying who is gaining ground and who is ceding it. Competition is about *relative* position, not absolute quality — side-by-side comparison reveals whose moat is real and whose is marketing.
This lens asks: "Given the current competitive dynamics, where is each player headed in 12-18 months?" The goal is to surface market share shifts, pricing power differentials, and momentum reversals that company-level analysis misses.
Signals Produced
Competitive Dynamics
COMPETITIVE_DYNAMICS
Relative Momentum
RELATIVE_MOMENTUM
What This Lens Catches
| Pattern | Example | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Market leader pulling away | Leader growing 30%+ while #2 grows 10% | LEADER_EXTENDING |
| Stable competitive equilibrium | Top 3 hold consistent share for 3+ years | STABLE_OLIGOPOLY |
| Share shift in progress | Challenger gaining 200+ bps share per year | CONTESTED_TRANSITION |
| No clear winner emerging | 5+ players all growing similarly | FRAGMENTED_RACE |
| Pricing power differential | One company raises prices while peers discount | ACCELERATING |
| Momentum reversal | Previous leader's growth decelerating while challenger accelerates | REVERSING |
Analysis Stages
Market Structure Mapping
How many players, market share distribution, concentration (HHI estimate)
Relative Position Assessment
Compare moat assessments, revenue growth rates, and gross margins across companies
Momentum Analysis
Who is gaining or losing share, mindshare trends (Google Trends), hiring velocity
Win/Loss Dynamics
Head-to-head competitive commentary from earnings calls, pricing power comparison
Trajectory Projection
Given current momentum, where does each company land in 12-18 months?
Required Sources
Must Have
Compiled financial data, moat assessments, and competitive signals across all constituents
Internal (Archivist output)
COMPETITIVE_POSITION signals from each company's Moat Mapper analysis
Internal (equity lens outputs)
Competitive commentary, pricing power claims, market share discussion
Seeking Alpha, company IR
Enhances Analysis
Relative search interest across competitors over time
Google Trends
Hiring velocity in sales vs. engineering, geographic expansion signals
Career pages, LinkedIn
How each company describes the competitive landscape and its position
SEC EDGAR
What This Lens Does NOT Do
- Does not assess individual company financial health (that is Stress Scanner at equity level)
- Does not assess individual company moat quality (that is Moat Mapper at equity level)
- Does not produce company-level valuation assessments
- Does not predict exact market share percentages
When This Lens Applies
Always applicable — Every sector analysis should include competitive position mapping.