Disruption Vector Scanner
What forces could structurally reshape this sector within 3 years?
The Disruption Vector Scanner identifies specific forces that could fundamentally alter a sector's competitive landscape, cost structure, or business model viability within a 3-year horizon. Disruption comes from three vectors: (a) technology shifts that change cost structure, (b) regulatory changes that alter rules, and (c) business model innovation that redefines value delivery.
This lens applies the Christensen test: "Is there a new entrant that is worse today but improving faster on the dimension customers will eventually care about?" The goal is to separate genuine disruption risk from hype cycles, and to assess how fast each constituent is adapting.
Signals Produced
Disruption Exposure
DISRUPTION_EXPOSURE
Adaptation Speed
ADAPTATION_SPEED
What This Lens Catches
| Pattern | Example | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Structural insulation | Regulated utility with no viable alternative technology | INSULATED |
| Active adaptation | Company replatforming onto AI with measurable product improvements | ADAPTING |
| Denial while vulnerable | Management dismisses AI threat while startup grows 200% YoY | VULNERABLE + DENYING |
| Existential technology shift | AI code generation threatening dev tools at 10x lower cost | EXISTENTIAL |
| Leader in adaptation | First mover with AI-native product; competitors 12+ months behind | LEADING |
| Active denial | Management explicitly downplaying risk; no R&D reallocation | DENYING |
Analysis Stages
Disruption Vector Identification
What specific forces could reshape this sector? Categorize as technology, regulatory, or business model.
Per-Company Adaptation Assessment
For each constituent, how fast are they adapting? Evidence from product launches, R&D reallocation, pricing model changes.
New Entrant Mapping
Who are the startups building replacements? Growth rates, funding, competitive price/performance.
Regulatory Direction
Is regulation accelerating or decelerating disruption?
Customer Adoption Evidence
Are buyers actually switching to disruptive alternatives?
Timeline & Severity Assessment
How quickly could disruption materially impact the sector?
Required Sources
Must Have
Management commentary on AI/disruption, R&D spending, product roadmaps, competitive threats
Internal (Archivist output)
Moat Mapper defensibility signals, Revenue Revealer durability signals across constituents
Internal (equity lens outputs)
Disruption commentary, AI integration plans, pricing model changes, new entrant mentions
Seeking Alpha, company IR
Enhances Analysis
Search interest for disruptive terms (e.g., 'AI code generation' for dev tools)
Google Trends
CPC patent velocity in disruption-adjacent categories; filing trends by company
USPTO PatentsView
AI/ML role percentage of total openings; new-tech hiring velocity
Career pages, LinkedIn
Proposed rules affecting the sector; regulatory comment periods
Federal Register API
What This Lens Does NOT Do
- Does not assess individual company competitive positioning (that is Competitive Chessboard)
- Does not assess capital allocation quality (that is Capital Cycle Gauge)
- Does not analyze value chain structure (that is Value Chain Mapper)
- Does not predict which specific company will 'win' or 'lose' from disruption
When This Lens Applies
Always applicable — Every sector analysis should include disruption assessment.