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AMZN Forecast Markets
Amazon.com, Inc.
7
Active Markets
1
Resolved
24%
Avg Probability
All Markets
8 markets
Will AWS year-over-year revenue growth fall below 20% in any two consecutive reported quarters by Q3 2026?
11%
Likely No
95% agreement
Nov 15, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will Amazon revise its 2026 capital expenditure guidance downward by more than 15% (to below $170B) by Q2 2026 earnings?
14%
Likely No
92% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will AWS segment operating margin fall below 28% in any two consecutive reported quarters by Q3 2026?
12%
Likely No
82% agreement
Nov 15, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will a major AI model demonstrate 5x or greater inference efficiency improvement over current frontier models by Q3 2026?
38%
Likely No
91% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will Amazon issue more than $20B in new long-term debt during the first three quarters of 2026?
45%
Likely No
91% agreement
Oct 31, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will the European Commission issue a formal enforcement decision against Amazon under the Digital Markets Act by Q4 2026?
8%
Likely No
79% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will any major credit rating agency downgrade Amazon's long-term debt rating or place it on negative outlook by Q3 2026?
8%
Likely No
95% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will Amazon report AWS remaining performance obligations (backlog) exceeding $300B by Q2 2026 earnings?
55%
Likely Yes
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.64
Resolution Timeline
Aug 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Amazon report AWS remaining performance obligations (backlog) exceeding $300B by Q2 2026 earnings?Prediction: 55%
Oct 31, 2026
Will Amazon issue more than $20B in new long-term debt during the first three quarters of 2026?Prediction: 45%
Nov 15, 2026
Will AWS year-over-year revenue growth fall below 20% in any two consecutive reported quarters by Q3 2026?Prediction: 11%
Nov 15, 2026
Will AWS segment operating margin fall below 28% in any two consecutive reported quarters by Q3 2026?Prediction: 12%