Will AWS year-over-year revenue growth fall below 20% in any two consecutive reported quarters by Q3 2026?

The base comparison math strongly favors NO. Q1 2025 AWS revenue was $29.3B; even flat sequential from Q4's $35.6B yields ~21.5% YoY growth for Q1 2026. Q2 2025 was $30.9B, so Q2 2026 would need to fall below $37.1B — implausible given the $244B backlog (+40% YoY) and exit ARR of $142B. For two consecutive sub-20% quarters, AWS would need a dramatic reversal of the 17% to 24% acceleration trajectory within one quarter, which neither the Stress Scanner's 15-25% slowdown scenario nor the Azure competitive pressure thesis supports on that timeline.

The only plausible path to YES is Q2-Q3 2026 consecutive sub-20%, since Q1 comparisons are too easy. Q3 2026 faces the hardest comparison (Q3 2025 was $33.0B, requiring $39.6B+). However, even the Stress Scanner's 'AWS Demand Slowdown' scenario — which envisions growth slowing to 10% — is assigned only 15-25% probability, and that scenario describes a sustained slowdown, not one that must manifest in two specific consecutive quarters. The Q4 reacceleration to 24%, while 'meaningful but not conclusive' per committee consensus, combined with custom silicon at $10B+ ARR with triple-digit growth, provides additional growth momentum that wasn't present during the sub-20% Q1-Q2 2025 period.

The committee resolved Q4 reacceleration as 'meaningful but not conclusive,' yet the quantitative trajectory (17% -> 17.5% -> 20.2% -> 24%) shows four consecutive quarters of sequential acceleration — this is not noise. The $244B backlog at +40% YoY provides multi-quarter revenue visibility. Even weighting the Azure growth differential (39% vs 24%) and AWS share erosion (~33% to ~29-30%), competitive pressure has been present throughout 2025 and did not prevent the acceleration from Q1's 17% to Q4's 24%. For the question to resolve YES, something genuinely discontinuous would need to occur — a major customer defection or AI efficiency breakthrough — within the next two quarters.

While the acceleration trend and easy comparisons make sub-20% unlikely for Q1-Q2 2026, the Azure competitive pressure deserves more weight. Azure is growing at a 15pp differential (39% vs 24%), and AWS market share has declined from ~33% to ~29-30% over three years. AI workloads are the primary growth driver, and Azure's deepening OpenAI integration plus neocloud competition (CoreWeave, Lambda Labs) could fragment AWS's AI revenue. The Q3 2026 comparison against $33.0B (+20.2% in Q3 2025) is the tightest — if growth slows even modestly from 24%, a Q2-Q3 consecutive sub-20% path opens. Still unlikely given backlog, but competitive dynamics warrant higher probability than the base math alone suggests.

The question requires two CONSECUTIVE sub-20% quarters, which is a much higher bar than a single sub-20% quarter. With Q1 2026 comparisons against Q1 2025's $29.3B (17% growth), Q1 2026 is almost certainly above 20% — making Q1-Q2 consecutive failure nearly impossible. The only viable path is Q2-Q3, requiring BOTH to independently fall below 20%. Q2 2025 base of $30.9B (17.5% growth) is also relatively easy. The realistic risk concentrates on Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025's $33.0B (20.2%). Even there, the $244B backlog and $142B ARR run rate provide a strong floor. The 'two consecutive' requirement approximately squares the per-quarter probability.

The $244B backlog (+40% YoY, +22% sequential) is the single most dispositive fact. At a conservative 5-year duration, this backlog represents ~$49B in annual committed revenue. With Q4 2025 AWS revenue at $35.6B quarterly ($142B annualized), the backlog alone covers ~35% of the annual run rate. This contracted demand provides a hard floor that makes a growth collapse below 20% extremely unlikely in the near term. Combined with custom silicon momentum ($10B+ ARR, triple-digit growth) and the favorable Q1/Q2 comparisons, the probability of two consecutive sub-20% quarters is firmly in single digits.

AWS growth reaccelerated to 24% in Q4, but market share continues eroding (~33% to ~29-30%) and Azure's 39% growth with OpenAI integration is a structural headwind. A DeepSeek-style AI efficiency breakthrough could materially reduce compute demand. The committee's own CONTESTED minority position holds that sub-20% growth would validate competitive pressure. Assigning modestly higher probability to account for tail risks the committee may be underweighting.

Simple base rate math: Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025 ($29.3B, 17% growth) — AWS at $35.6B Q4 run rate implies ~21%+ growth even with zero sequential growth. Q2 faces similarly easy comparison. Two consecutive sub-20% quarters require growth reversal of 4+ percentage points within 1-2 quarters from a 24% base. Historical AWS growth has never reversed that sharply without a macro recession. Backlog at $244B provides additional floor.

The Q4 reacceleration is positive but the committee called it 'meaningful but not conclusive.' AWS share is still declining and Azure is gaining at 2x the rate. If AI workload migration to Azure/GCP accelerates, Q3 2026 (hardest comparison against $33.0B) could fall below 20%, but this would need to follow a sub-20% Q2 as well — which faces an easy comparison. Low probability but not negligible given genuine competitive dynamics.