Will the European Commission issue a formal enforcement decision against Amazon under the Digital Markets Act by Q4 2026?

The DMA enforcement timeline is the critical binding constraint. The EC has not opened a formal investigation into Amazon's marketplace under the DMA. A formal enforcement decision requires: (1) opening an investigation, (2) issuing a Statement of Objections, (3) receiving Amazon's response, (4) issuing a final decision with remedies or fines. This process typically takes 18-30 months minimum. With no investigation opened as of February 2026, completing all procedural steps by December 2026 is extremely unlikely. Even the accelerated Apple DMA case took approximately 12 months from investigation opening to preliminary findings, and final decisions take considerably longer. The committee's own E1 evidence level (lowest) and classification as a monitoring trigger reinforces that no proceedings are underway.

The EC has demonstrated aggressive posture on DMA enforcement against Apple and Google, but Amazon's marketplace has not been specifically targeted yet. The resolution criteria specifically requires a 'formal enforcement decision with remedies or fines' -- not merely an investigation opening or preliminary finding. The procedural timeline makes completion by Q4 2026 nearly impossible given the current zero-proceedings baseline. However, the EC has new fast-track enforcement powers under the DMA and could theoretically accelerate. A small but non-trivial probability exists if the EC has been building a case in the background or if parallel self-preferencing evidence from the FTC discovery is shared with EU regulators, enabling a compressed timeline.

The committee's own assessment classified EU DMA evidence as E1 (the lowest evidence level) and explicitly resolved it as a monitoring trigger, not a current classification driver. The Regulatory Reader found no specific enforcement actions against Amazon under the DMA. The question's resolution criteria is strict -- a final decision with remedies or fines, not an investigation opening or preliminary findings. EU regulatory proceedings have well-established procedural requirements including rights of defense that make sub-12-month timelines from zero proceedings to final decision historically unprecedented. The base rate for going from 'no investigation' to 'final enforcement decision' in under 11 months is extremely low even for the most aggressive EU enforcement actions.

No DMA investigation has been opened against Amazon. The EC's enforcement timeline against Apple (investigation opened approximately September 2023, initial findings approximately June 2024, no final decision yet by early 2026) demonstrates that even high-priority DMA cases take 18+ months from investigation to final decision. Going from zero proceedings to a final decision in approximately 10 months is procedurally improbable. The EC must respect due process rights including allowing Amazon to respond to any Statement of Objections. Even if the EC is preparing to open an investigation, a final decision by December 2026 would require extraordinary acceleration beyond any established precedent.

Key factors: E1 evidence level (lowest), no current proceedings, strict resolution criteria requiring final decision with remedies or fines. The DMA does provide streamlined enforcement tools relative to traditional competition law, and political pressure exists for enforcement against US tech platforms. However, the procedural timeline remains the binding constraint. The EC's pattern with Apple and Google shows they take 12-18 months even for preliminary findings, with final decisions taking longer. Slightly higher probability assigned to account for the tail scenario where the EC has been conducting a confidential investigation or where self-preferencing evidence from FTC proceedings accelerates the EU case, combined with the DMA's compressed statutory timelines.

While the EU regulatory environment is aggressive toward US tech platforms, the specific question asks about a FINAL enforcement decision -- the highest bar in the enforcement process. Even assuming the EC opens a formal investigation in Q1 2026, reaching a final decision by Q4 2026 would require completing the entire enforcement process in approximately 9 months, which would be unprecedented speed. The DMA does prescribe shorter timelines for non-compliance proceedings (12 months), but these are aspirational targets, not binding constraints, and have not been achieved in practice. Accounting for the possibility that the EC has conducted preliminary assessment work or that the DMA's streamlined procedures could compress timelines somewhat beyond historical competition law precedent.

No current DMA investigation against Amazon marketplace. Final enforcement decisions require 12-24+ months from investigation opening through Statement of Objections to final decision. Resolution requires completion of entire enforcement process by December 2026 -- approximately 10 months from today with zero proceedings initiated. Very unlikely given established enforcement timelines.

E1 evidence level confirms no DMA proceedings against Amazon. Committee explicitly classified EU DMA as monitoring trigger, not current risk driver. EC enforcement against Apple and Google has not yet produced final decisions despite investigations opened 12+ months ago. Amazon timeline is even further behind with zero proceedings initiated. Strict resolution criteria of final decision with remedies makes this very unlikely by Q4 2026.

DMA enforcement framework is maturing but Amazon marketplace has not been specifically targeted. Political pressure for enforcement against US tech platforms exists but procedural timeline constrains probability. Small chance if EC has undisclosed preliminary assessment work or if DMA fast-track mechanisms compress the timeline. Self-preferencing allegations that align with FTC case could provide ready evidence, but procedural steps still take time.