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ARX Forecast Markets

Accelerant Holdings

7
Active Markets
57%
Avg Probability
Price at Value
Mar 23, 2026

Our prediction ensemble suggests price is consistent with fundamentals.

7 markets analyzedConfidence: LOW
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

7 markets

Will Accelerant Holdings file an 8-K announcing a CFO transition by Q4 2026?

Active
38%
Likely No
92% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will Hadron's share of ARX third-party insurer premium fall below 33% by Q4 2026?

Active
48%
Likely No
94% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will ARX's FY2026 investment gains comprise less than 10% of Adjusted EBITDA?

Active
60%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.60

Will ARX's gross loss ratio remain below 55% for all FY2026 quarters?

Active
68%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will ARX's net revenue retention remain above 120% through FY2026?

Active
68%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will ARX achieve FY2026 exchange written premium above $5 billion?

Active
65%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.36

Will ARX's fully diluted share count increase by less than 5% in FY2026?

Active
52%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.36

Resolution Timeline

Jan 15, 2027
Will Accelerant Holdings file an 8-K announcing a CFO transition by Q4 2026?
Prediction: 38%
Mar 15, 2027
Will Hadron's share of ARX third-party insurer premium fall below 33% by Q4 2026?
Prediction: 48%
Mar 31, 2027
Will ARX's FY2026 investment gains comprise less than 10% of Adjusted EBITDA?
Prediction: 60%
Mar 31, 2027
Will ARX's gross loss ratio remain below 55% for all FY2026 quarters?
Prediction: 68%
Mar 31, 2027
Will ARX's net revenue retention remain above 120% through FY2026?
Prediction: 68%
Mar 31, 2027
Will ARX achieve FY2026 exchange written premium above $5 billion?
Prediction: 65%
Mar 31, 2027
Will ARX's fully diluted share count increase by less than 5% in FY2026?
Prediction: 52%