Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive
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ARX Forecast Markets
Accelerant Holdings
7
Active Markets
57%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will Accelerant Holdings file an 8-K announcing a CFO transition by Q4 2026?
38%
Likely No
92% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will Hadron's share of ARX third-party insurer premium fall below 33% by Q4 2026?
48%
Likely No
94% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will ARX's FY2026 investment gains comprise less than 10% of Adjusted EBITDA?
60%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.60
Will ARX's gross loss ratio remain below 55% for all FY2026 quarters?
68%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will ARX's net revenue retention remain above 120% through FY2026?
68%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will ARX achieve FY2026 exchange written premium above $5 billion?
65%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.36
Will ARX's fully diluted share count increase by less than 5% in FY2026?
52%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.36
Resolution Timeline
Jan 15, 2027
Will Accelerant Holdings file an 8-K announcing a CFO transition by Q4 2026?Prediction: 38%
Mar 15, 2027
Will Hadron's share of ARX third-party insurer premium fall below 33% by Q4 2026?Prediction: 48%
Mar 31, 2027
Will ARX's FY2026 investment gains comprise less than 10% of Adjusted EBITDA?Prediction: 60%