ARXActive

Will ARX's FY2026 investment gains comprise less than 10% of Adjusted EBITDA?

Resolves March 31, 2027(371d)

IG: 0.60

Current Prediction

60%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement94%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 23, 2026

Why This Question Matters

EBITDA quality is the core accounting integrity question. Q3 2025's 37% contribution from investment gains made underlying profitability nearly impossible to assess. If FY2026 EBITDA is generated primarily from operations, it validates the business model's earnings power. If gains persist at elevated levels, it confirms the Fugazi Filter's QUESTIONABLE classification.

ACCOUNTING_INTEGRITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 55% – 65%Aggregate: 60%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

62%

FY2026 guidance of $269M EBITDA is described explicitly as ex-investment gains. Management has set the expectation that gains will not be a material component. With $269M target, 10% threshold means gains need to stay below $27M. The Q3 2025 $39M gain was described as atypical.

FY2026 guidance explicitly excludes gains$39M Q3 gain described as atypicalMGA minority stakes create potential for future gains

opusRun 2

58%

Management explicit exclusion of gains from FY2026 guidance creates a strong anchor. The 10% threshold on $269M equals $27M in gains. For FY2026, gains above $27M would require another MGA sale or significant revaluations.

Management guidance framing creates strong anchor10% threshold equals $27MMGA sales are discretionary

opusRun 3

65%

The strongest signal is management intent. Setting guidance ex-investment gains and then booking material gains would undermine credibility in early public reporting. MGA minority stake sales are discretionary management decisions. The $30M MGA sale was specific and non-repeating.

Management credibility incentiveMGA sales are discretionary decisions$30M MGA sale was non-repeating

sonnetRun 1

60%

Management guidance explicitly excludes gains, creating a strong prior for YES. Given the incentive to establish credibility in year 2 as a public company, probability favors gains below 10%.

Guidance ex-gains creates strong YES priorUnrealized revaluations could occur involuntarilyYear 2 credibility incentive

sonnetRun 2

55%

The similar-investments comment introduces uncertainty. Accelerant owns minority stakes in multiple MGAs. Mark-to-market revaluations or partner exits could generate gains involuntarily.

Similar investments comment introduces uncertaintyMGA Operations generates equity participation valueInvoluntary gains harder to control

sonnetRun 3

58%

Resolution hinges on definitions. If investment gains narrowly means MGA sales and ecosystem revaluations, management can control this by not selling. The Q3 components were discretionary and unusual.

Definition clarity mattersBoth Q3 components were discretionaryManagement control over MGA sale timing

haikuRun 1

62%

Management guided explicitly ex-gains. In year 2 post-IPO, credibility matters. The Q3 2025 gains were from a specific sale that will not repeat.

Explicit guidance ex-gainsCredibility incentiveNon-repeating Q3 events

haikuRun 2

58%

Favors YES but MGA ecosystem stakes create a reservoir of potential gains. Mark-to-market could trigger involuntary gains. Modest edge toward clean EBITDA year.

MGA stake reservoir for potential gainsInvoluntary mark-to-market riskModest edge toward YES

haikuRun 3

60%

Management intent is the dominant signal. Guiding ex-gains and then reporting material gains would damage credibility. 60% probability for clean year.

Management intent dominant signalCredibility damage from inconsistency60% for clean year

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if ARX's FY2026 annual results show investment gains (MGA stake sales, ecosystem investment revaluations) constitute less than 10% of total Adjusted EBITDA. Resolves NO if investment gains are 10% or more of Adjusted EBITDA.

Resolution Source

ARX FY2026 10-K filing or FY2026 earnings call EBITDA bridge disclosure

Source Trigger

Monitor the proportion of Adjusted EBITDA derived from investment gains vs. underlying operations. Q3 2025 was 37% gains; this should normalize to near-zero.

fugazi-filterACCOUNTING_INTEGRITYHIGH

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