Will ARX's fully diluted share count increase by less than 5% in FY2026?

The $293M in IPO equity grants vesting over 4 years implies roughly $73M annual dilution from that tranche alone. Q3 2025 noncash SBC was $27M quarterly (~$108M annualized), suggesting ongoing operational grants on top of IPO tranche. The 5% threshold depends on the fully diluted share count base, which is not precisely known without a DEF14A. For a company with a multi-billion dollar market cap, $108M in annual SBC could easily represent 3-6% dilution.

Without knowing the exact fully diluted share count, this is highly uncertain. The $293M in options and RSUs, plus ongoing grants, could produce anywhere from 3% to 7% annual dilution depending on share price and base. The March 2026 RSU grants show continued issuance beyond IPO tranche. No anti-dilution program in place. Near coin-flip with slight edge toward below 5% given that 25% cliff vesting means not all shares vest in year 1.

True coin-flip given the data limitations. The vesting schedule (25% cliff + quarterly) means roughly 25-30% of the IPO grant pool vests in year 1. On $293M, that is about $73-88M in vested value. Whether this translates to above or below 5% share count growth depends entirely on the base share count, which we cannot precisely determine from available filings.

The $108M annualized SBC run rate against a $269M EBITDA target suggests SBC is a substantial proportion of value creation. For recently public companies with heavy IPO-related equity grants, 5-8% annual dilution is common. The absence of a buyback program means dilution is purely additive. Slightly below 50% reflecting the typical post-IPO dilution pattern.

The cliff vesting structure provides some protection in year 1. If the IPO was mid-2025, the 25% cliff might not vest until mid-2026, limiting the impact within FY2026 specifically. The ongoing operational grants ($27M/quarter) add to dilution but at a more manageable pace. Slightly above coin-flip.

Insufficient data to push meaningfully in either direction. The $293M total grant pool over 4 years suggests roughly $73M/year, but the cliff structure and ongoing grants complicate the math. Without the DEF14A or precise share count, this is a true 50/50.

Cliff vesting limits first-year dilution. But $108M annualized SBC is substantial. Slight edge toward below 5% given cliff protection.

Post-IPO dilution typically runs 5-8% annually. Without buyback, all SBC is additive dilution. Slightly below 50%.

Near coin-flip. Cliff vesting provides some protection but substantial equity grants work against the 5% threshold. Data limitations prevent confident assessment.