RuncheyResearch
Back to Forecasting

COMP Forecast Markets

Compass, Inc.

7
Active Markets
1
Resolved
29%
Avg Probability
Price at Value
Feb 26, 2026

Our prediction ensemble suggests price is consistent with fundamentals.

8 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

8 markets

Will Compass's first combined quarterly EBITDA (Q1 2026) meet or exceed $150M on a pro forma basis?

Active
5%
Likely No
30%5%after Q4 2025 earnings: management guided Q1 2026 combined EBITDA of $15-35M, far below $150M threshold
96% agreement
Jun 30, 2026
IG: 1.00

Will Compass report or disclose cumulative synergy realization exceeding $100M within the first 12 months post-merger close?

Active
82%
Likely Yes
55%82%after Q4 2025 earnings: $175M actioned in 6.5 weeks, CEO raised Year 1 target to $250M, run-rate annualized clause favors YES
88% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will Compass maintain combined agent count above 323,000 (95% of ~340,000) through Q3 2026?

Active
75%
Likely Yes
67%75%after Q4 2025 earnings: 96.8% Compass retention, Anywhere all-time high retention, record 830 agent adds
92% agreement
Nov 30, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will Compass report net debt/EBITDA of 4.0x or below by Q2 2026 (first two quarters combined)?

Active
10%
Likely No
40%10%after Q4 2025 earnings confirmed $3.15B debt with no prepayment before April 2027
92% agreement
Oct 31, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Compass's annualized stock-based compensation decline to $150M or below by Q3 2026?

Active
6%
Likely No
22%6%after Q4 2025 earnings: CEO committed <$50M/quarter SBC — above $37.5M threshold
96% agreement
Dec 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will U.S. existing home sales decline more than 10% year-over-year in any month through September 2026?

Active
20%
Likely No
28%20%after January 2026 existing home sales -4.4% YoY, mortgage rates at 3-year lows
92% agreement
Oct 31, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Compass record a goodwill impairment charge related to the Anywhere acquisition by June 30, 2027?

Active
11%
Likely No
13%11%after Q4 2025 earnings: synergies ahead of plan ($175M actioned), strong EBITDA growth
92% agreement
Sep 30, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will Compass receive a favorable ruling (or settlement) in the Compass v. Zillow private exclusives lawsuit by September 30, 2026?

Resolved
20%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.040
Mar 23, 2026
IG: 0.64

Resolution Timeline

Jun 30, 2026
Will Compass's first combined quarterly EBITDA (Q1 2026) meet or exceed $150M on a pro forma basis?
Prediction: 5%
Sep 30, 2026RESOLVED
Will Compass receive a favorable ruling (or settlement) in the Compass v. Zillow private exclusives lawsuit by September 30, 2026?
NOBrier: 0.04
Oct 31, 2026
Will Compass report net debt/EBITDA of 4.0x or below by Q2 2026 (first two quarters combined)?
Prediction: 10%
Oct 31, 2026
Will U.S. existing home sales decline more than 10% year-over-year in any month through September 2026?
Prediction: 20%
Nov 30, 2026
Will Compass maintain combined agent count above 323,000 (95% of ~340,000) through Q3 2026?
Prediction: 75%
Dec 15, 2026
Will Compass's annualized stock-based compensation decline to $150M or below by Q3 2026?
Prediction: 6%
Jan 31, 2027
Will Compass report or disclose cumulative synergy realization exceeding $100M within the first 12 months post-merger close?
Prediction: 82%
Sep 30, 2027
Will Compass record a goodwill impairment charge related to the Anywhere acquisition by June 30, 2027?
Prediction: 11%