Back to Forecasting
COMP Forecast Markets
Compass, Inc.
5
Active Markets
3
Resolved
28%
Avg Probability
All Markets
8 markets
Will Compass maintain combined agent count above 323,000 (95% of ~340,000) through Q3 2026?
80%
Likely Yes
67%80%after Q1 2026 earnings (May 5): pro forma combined agent count ~334K above 323K threshold; productive-cohort retention 97-98%; Q2 recruiting accelerating
94% agreement
Nov 30, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will Compass report net debt/EBITDA of 4.0x or below by Q2 2026 (first two quarters combined)?
11%
Likely No
40%11%after Q1 2026 earnings (May 5): Q1 EBITDA $61M record above guide; Q2 guide $310-350M; net debt ~$2.66B fixed; April 2027 deleveraging plan
93% agreement
Oct 31, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will Compass's annualized stock-based compensation decline to $150M or below by Q3 2026?
5%
Likely No
22%5%after Q1 2026 earnings (May 5): CFO committed ≤$50M/qtr SBC consolidated — $200M annualized vs. $150M threshold
97% agreement
Dec 15, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will U.S. existing home sales decline more than 10% year-over-year in any month through September 2026?
15%
Likely No
28%15%after Q1 2026 actuals (per Compass): market existing home sales +1.5% YoY; refi +100% YoY; purchase +4% YoY
94% agreement
Oct 31, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will Compass record a goodwill impairment charge related to the Anywhere acquisition by June 30, 2027?
8%
Likely No
13%8%after Q1 2026 earnings (May 5): preliminary PPA 45% goodwill share (below 80% threshold); synergies $250M+ actioned; credit rating upgrades; stock +18%
95% agreement
Sep 30, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will Compass's first combined quarterly EBITDA (Q1 2026) meet or exceed $150M on a pro forma basis?
5%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.003May 7, 2026
IG: 1.00
Will Compass report or disclose cumulative synergy realization exceeding $100M within the first 12 months post-merger close?
82%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.032May 7, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will Compass receive a favorable ruling (or settlement) in the Compass v. Zillow private exclusives lawsuit by September 30, 2026?
20%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.040Mar 23, 2026
IG: 0.64
Resolution Timeline
Jun 30, 2026RESOLVED
Will Compass's first combined quarterly EBITDA (Q1 2026) meet or exceed $150M on a pro forma basis? NOBrier: 0.00
Sep 30, 2026RESOLVED
Will Compass receive a favorable ruling (or settlement) in the Compass v. Zillow private exclusives lawsuit by September 30, 2026? NOBrier: 0.04
Oct 31, 2026
Will Compass report net debt/EBITDA of 4.0x or below by Q2 2026 (first two quarters combined)?Prediction: 11%
Oct 31, 2026
Will U.S. existing home sales decline more than 10% year-over-year in any month through September 2026?Prediction: 15%
Nov 30, 2026
Will Compass maintain combined agent count above 323,000 (95% of ~340,000) through Q3 2026?Prediction: 80%
Dec 15, 2026
Will Compass's annualized stock-based compensation decline to $150M or below by Q3 2026?Prediction: 5%
Jan 31, 2027RESOLVED
Will Compass report or disclose cumulative synergy realization exceeding $100M within the first 12 months post-merger close? YESBrier: 0.03
Sep 30, 2027
Will Compass record a goodwill impairment charge related to the Anywhere acquisition by June 30, 2027?Prediction: 8%