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COMP Forecast Markets

Compass, Inc.

8
Active Markets
34%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Feb 9, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

8 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

8 markets

Will Compass's first combined quarterly EBITDA (Q1 2026) meet or exceed $150M on a pro forma basis?

Active
30%
Likely No
92% agreement
Jun 30, 2026
IG: 1.00

Will Compass report or disclose cumulative synergy realization exceeding $100M within the first 12 months post-merger close?

Active
55%
Likely Yes
90% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will Compass maintain combined agent count above 323,000 (95% of ~340,000) through Q3 2026?

Active
67%
Likely Yes
85% agreement
Nov 30, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will Compass receive a favorable ruling (or settlement) in the Compass v. Zillow private exclusives lawsuit by September 30, 2026?

Active
20%
Likely No
93% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Compass report net debt/EBITDA of 4.0x or below by Q2 2026 (first two quarters combined)?

Active
40%
Likely No
88% agreement
Oct 31, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Compass's annualized stock-based compensation decline to $150M or below by Q3 2026?

Active
22%
Likely No
92% agreement
Dec 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will U.S. existing home sales decline more than 10% year-over-year in any month through September 2026?

Active
28%
Likely No
92% agreement
Oct 31, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Compass record a goodwill impairment charge related to the Anywhere acquisition by June 30, 2027?

Active
13%
Likely No
93% agreement
Sep 30, 2027
IG: 0.48

Resolution Timeline

Jun 30, 2026
Will Compass's first combined quarterly EBITDA (Q1 2026) meet or exceed $150M on a pro forma basis?
Prediction: 30%
Sep 30, 2026
Will Compass receive a favorable ruling (or settlement) in the Compass v. Zillow private exclusives lawsuit by September 30, 2026?
Prediction: 20%
Oct 31, 2026
Will Compass report net debt/EBITDA of 4.0x or below by Q2 2026 (first two quarters combined)?
Prediction: 40%
Oct 31, 2026
Will U.S. existing home sales decline more than 10% year-over-year in any month through September 2026?
Prediction: 28%
Nov 30, 2026
Will Compass maintain combined agent count above 323,000 (95% of ~340,000) through Q3 2026?
Prediction: 67%
Dec 15, 2026
Will Compass's annualized stock-based compensation decline to $150M or below by Q3 2026?
Prediction: 22%
Jan 31, 2027
Will Compass report or disclose cumulative synergy realization exceeding $100M within the first 12 months post-merger close?
Prediction: 55%
Sep 30, 2027
Will Compass record a goodwill impairment charge related to the Anywhere acquisition by June 30, 2027?
Prediction: 13%