Will Compass maintain combined agent count above 323,000 (95% of ~340,000) through Q3 2026?

The 5% cushion is the decisive structural factor. Compass standalone has 97%+ quarterly retention (E3 evidence), and the franchise model insulates the vast majority of acquired agents — franchisees manage agent relationships, not Compass corporate. Even if integration creates friction, 17,000 agents would need to leave net in 9 months for this to resolve NO. The CIRE integration precedent, where agent count actually increased post-close, suggests Compass has demonstrated integration capability. However, the unprecedented scale (340K vs prior smaller acquisitions) and the CONTESTED moat classification introduce genuine uncertainty. The franchise insulation is the strongest argument: agents at Century 21 or Coldwell Banker may barely notice the corporate change.

The absence of contractual lock-in cuts both ways. While 97% retention historically shows agents choose to stay voluntarily, that loyalty was built within single-brand environments. Post-merger, agents face uncertainty about commission structures, technology platforms, and brand identity. The Myth Meter flagging >95% retention as one of six DEMANDING conditions is a relevant caution — it suggests the analysis engine itself views this metric as aspirational rather than assured. Competitor recruiting during integration chaos is a real risk: eXp's 80/20 split structure becomes more attractive when your current brokerage is in upheaval. However, the franchise model means most agents experience the merger as a distant corporate event, not a direct disruption to their daily operations.

The math on natural attrition is instructive. At 97% quarterly retention for Compass standalone (~33K agents), that is ~1,000 agents lost per quarter offset by 700-800 adds. For the combined 340K entity, if we assume similar 3% quarterly churn across all brands, that is ~10,200 per quarter or ~30,600 over 3 quarters. But Compass historically has net positive adds, and the franchise brands have their own retention dynamics that pre-date the merger. The question is whether merger-specific incremental churn exceeds the 17,000 buffer after accounting for natural adds. Given brand preservation, franchise insulation, and the largest referral network advantage, incremental merger-driven churn of 17K+ seems like a tail scenario requiring a major franchisee defection or housing market collapse.

Compass's 97%+ retention track record is the strongest evidence point — it persisted even through the challenging 2022-2023 housing downturn when revenue declined significantly. The franchise model is key: the ~300K+ franchise-side agents interact with their local franchisee, not Compass corporate. Platform migration and policy changes affect corporate operations, not the daily agent experience. The 5% threshold is generous enough that only a systemic event (major franchisee chain defection, severe housing crash during integration) would breach it. eXp's 2% YoY decline suggests the competitive landscape currently favors Compass, not against it.

The unprecedented scale is the primary concern. Compass has never managed 340K agents, and the Anywhere brands have different cultures, commission structures, and technology stacks. Integration of this magnitude typically produces unexpected friction — some franchise owners may view the Compass acquisition as a reason to explore independence or competing franchisors. The CONTESTED moat classification (moat is 'newly constructed and untested') directly applies here: can a newly assembled network of 340K agents hold together? The 5% cushion helps, but confidence is LOW because base rates for mega-merger agent retention in real estate are essentially unknown — there is no precedent.

The resolution criteria includes 'or not disclosed' as a NO condition, which adds a small but nonzero probability of technical NO resolution even if retention is fine. Setting that aside, the structural analysis favors YES: brand independence is preserved, the franchise model creates a buffer layer, and the 97%+ retention is verified at E3 evidence level. The main risk vector is not gradual attrition (the 5% buffer handles that) but rather discrete franchise defections — a major Century 21 or Coldwell Banker franchisee group switching to Keller Williams or going independent. This is possible but would need to be large-scale to breach the threshold.

The 5% cushion is generous. 97%+ retention is verified. Franchise model insulates most agents. Brand preservation reduces disruption. The market resolves YES unless there is a major systemic shock — franchisee chain defection or severe housing crash during integration window. Base case is YES.

The mega-merger scale is unprecedented. Independent contractor agents have zero switching costs. Competitor recruiting will intensify during integration. However, the generous 5% threshold and franchise insulation make failure require a cascading scenario. Probability favors YES but with meaningful uncertainty given no precedent.

Historical evidence is strong: Compass grew agents even during 2022-2023 downturn, CIRE integration increased agent count, and eXp is losing agents. The threshold allows 17K departures. Main risk is unprecedented scale and unknown franchise dynamics. Leans YES with moderate confidence.