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COST Forecast Markets
Costco Wholesale Corporation
7
Active Markets
1
Resolved
23%
Avg Probability
All Markets
8 markets
Will Costco's worldwide membership renewal rate drop below 88% by Q4 FY2026?
3%
Likely No
6%3%after Q2 FY2026 earnings + April 24 refresh
99% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will Costco report healthcare costs exceeding sales growth for 3+ consecutive quarters by Q4 FY2026?
10%
Likely No
55%10%after Q2 FY2026 earnings + April 24 refresh
94% agreement
Jun 15, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will Costco's trailing P/E ratio compress below 45x at any point before December 31, 2026?
27%
Likely No
28%27%after Q2 FY2026 earnings + April 24 refresh
93% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will Congress pass new tariff legislation with rates above 15% on broad imports before Section 122 expires in July 2026?
10%
Likely No
13%10%after Q2 FY2026 earnings + April 24 refresh
94% agreement
Jul 31, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will Costco's trailing twelve-month gross margin fall below 12.5% by end of FY2026?
10%
Likely No
17%10%after Q2 FY2026 earnings + April 24 refresh
94% agreement
Oct 31, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will Section 122 tariffs expire by August 2026 without a permanent replacement tariff regime enacted?
60%
Likely Yes
57%60%after Q2 FY2026 earnings + April 24 refresh
88% agreement
Sep 15, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will USDA take formal enforcement action against or halt production at Lincoln Premium Poultry by December 31, 2026?
10%
Likely No
11%10%after Q2 FY2026 earnings + April 24 refresh
95% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will Costco fail to achieve SG&A leverage for 4+ consecutive quarters by Q4 FY2026 despite comp sales above 5%?
50%
Likely No
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.250Mar 5, 2026
IG: 0.48
Resolution Timeline
Apr 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Costco fail to achieve SG&A leverage for 4+ consecutive quarters by Q4 FY2026 despite comp sales above 5%? YESBrier: 0.25
Jun 15, 2026
Will Costco report healthcare costs exceeding sales growth for 3+ consecutive quarters by Q4 FY2026?Prediction: 10%
Sep 15, 2026
Will Section 122 tariffs expire by August 2026 without a permanent replacement tariff regime enacted?Prediction: 60%
Oct 15, 2026
Will Costco's worldwide membership renewal rate drop below 88% by Q4 FY2026?Prediction: 3%
Oct 31, 2026
Will Costco's trailing twelve-month gross margin fall below 12.5% by end of FY2026?Prediction: 10%
Jan 15, 2027
Will Costco's trailing P/E ratio compress below 45x at any point before December 31, 2026?Prediction: 27%