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IBRX Forecast Markets

ImmunityBio, Inc.

5
Active Markets
1
Resolved
56%
Avg Probability
Price Below Value
Apr 24, 2026

Our prediction ensemble suggests potential upside from current levels.

5 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

6 markets

Will IBRX Q2 2026 net product revenue exceed $45 million?

Active
82%
Likely Yes
72%82%after Q1 2026 preliminary revenue of $44.2M (per April 9 8-K) came in just below the threshold, meaning Q2 needs only ~2% QoQ growth to clear $45M
93% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.72

Will ImmunityBio announce a public equity or convertible debt offering by December 31, 2026?

Active
90%
Likely Yes
85%90%after The $138M Q1 cash build (from $242.8M to $380.9M) cannot be fully explained by the $75M Oberland tranche, $25M convertible conversion, and Q1 revenue alone. The ~$60M+ residual likely reflects ATM issuances during Q1 (pending 10-Q confirmation).
94% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.68

Will ImmunityBio submit an sNDA/BLA for ANKTIVA in BCG-naive NMIBC to the FDA by December 31, 2026?

Active
74%
Likely Yes
35%74%after QUILT-2.005 fully enrolled with Independent Data Monitoring Committee confirming adequate statistical power (April 9 8-K). Management reiterated supplemental BLA submission on track for 2026.
91% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will IBRX report cash and marketable securities below $150 million as of September 30, 2026?

Active
12%
Likely No
55%12%after Q1 2026 cash position climbed to $380.9M (up from $242.8M) via Oberland RIPA, convertible conversion, and likely ATM issuances. Runway extends from 9.5 to 15-20+ months.
93% agreement
Nov 15, 2026
IG: 0.56

Will the FDA provide a clear regulatory pathway (IND acceptance, sNDA, or accelerated approval discussion minutes) for ANKTIVA in NSCLC by December 31, 2026?

Active
32%
Likely No
38%32%after Q1 2026 preliminary release contained no US NSCLC pathway update. Company bandwidth is focused on BCG-naive sBLA. March 24 FDA warning letter creates tone-of-interaction headwind for new indication discussions.
92% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will any conversion, restructuring, or extension of the $505M NantCapital convertible note be filed by December 31, 2026?

Resolved
45%
Likely No
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.302
Apr 19, 2026
IG: 0.56

Resolution Timeline

Aug 15, 2026
Will IBRX Q2 2026 net product revenue exceed $45 million?
Prediction: 82%
Nov 15, 2026
Will IBRX report cash and marketable securities below $150 million as of September 30, 2026?
Prediction: 12%
Jan 15, 2027
Will ImmunityBio announce a public equity or convertible debt offering by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 90%
Jan 15, 2027
Will ImmunityBio submit an sNDA/BLA for ANKTIVA in BCG-naive NMIBC to the FDA by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 74%
Jan 15, 2027
Will the FDA provide a clear regulatory pathway (IND acceptance, sNDA, or accelerated approval discussion minutes) for ANKTIVA in NSCLC by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 32%
Jan 15, 2027RESOLVED
Will any conversion, restructuring, or extension of the $505M NantCapital convertible note be filed by December 31, 2026?
YESBrier: 0.30