IBRXActive

Will IBRX report cash and marketable securities below $150 million as of September 30, 2026?

Resolves November 15, 2026(243d)

IG: 0.56

Current Prediction

55%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement76%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Why This Question Matters

The Stress Scanner identified $150M as a critical cash threshold below which financing leverage deteriorates significantly. Whether the company crosses this threshold by Q3 2026 reporting determines the urgency and likely terms of any capital raise.

FUNDING_FRAGILITYCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 45% – 58%Aggregate: 55%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

52%

$242.8M cash, ~$75M quarterly burn net of revenue. After 3 quarters (by Sept 30), cash would be ~$242.8M - (3 * $30-40M net burn) = ~$130-150M. However, if equity offering occurs (85% probability per our estimate), cash would be replenished above $150M. This market is conditional on whether the offering happens before or after Q3.

Net quarterly burn ~$30-40M3 quarters to SeptemberEquity offering timing critical

opusRun 2

48%

The math suggests cash approaches $150M by Q3 absent financing. But the high probability of equity offering (our 85% estimate) means cash likely gets replenished. The question is whether the offering happens before Q3 reporting. If yes, cash stays above $150M.

Cash approaches threshold naturallyOffering likely before Q3Timing determines outcome

opusRun 3

55%

Revenue growth partially offsets burn but cannot close gap. Q1 revenue ~$44M, Q2 ~$48M, Q3 ~$52M (estimated). Operating costs ~$100M/quarter. Net burn ~$50M/quarter. $242.8M - 3*$50M = ~$93M without financing. But financing is nearly certain to occur. Uncertainty is entirely about timing.

Revenue growth offsets partiallyNet burn ~$50M/quarter estimateFinancing timing critical

sonnetRun 1

45%

The company will almost certainly raise capital before cash drops to dangerous levels. Smart treasury management means acting at $150-200M, not waiting until the last moment. Probability of being below $150M at Q3 reporting is lower than the pure burn math suggests because the offering will likely come earlier.

Smart treasury managementAction before crisisOffering before Q3 likely

sonnetRun 2

55%

The pure math puts cash near $100-150M by September 30. Even accounting for revenue growth, the gap is substantial. However, this market resolves as of the REPORTED balance sheet date, and if an offering closes in Q3 but before the 10-Q, cash could be above $150M. Probability around 55% for below $150M.

Pure math near thresholdReporting date mattersOffering in Q3 possible

sonnetRun 3

58%

Without financing, cash will be below $150M by September. The question is whether financing arrives before September 30. Given typical biotech financing timelines (2-4 months from decision to close), if the company decides in Q2, proceeds arrive by Q3. But delays are common. Slightly above 50%.

Without financing, below $150M2-4 month financing timelineDelays common

haikuRun 1

50%

Coin flip. Cash trajectory points below $150M, but financing is very likely. Question is timing. 50/50.

Cash trajectory downFinancing likelyTiming uncertain

haikuRun 2

58%

Natural cash trajectory puts company below $150M by Q3. Even if offering planned, may not close by September 30. Slightly above 50%.

Natural trajectoryOffering may not close by Sept 30Slightly above 50%

haikuRun 3

55%

Cash burn exceeds revenue. Without financing, threshold is crossed. Financing likely but timing uncertain. ~55%.

Cash burn exceeds revenueTiming uncertain55%

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if IBRX reports consolidated cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities below $150 million on its balance sheet as of September 30, 2026 (10-Q filing).

Resolution Source

IBRX 10-Q for Q3 2026

Source Trigger

Cash position falling below $150M

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

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