IBRXActive

Will ImmunityBio announce a public equity or convertible debt offering by December 31, 2026?

Resolves January 15, 2027(304d)

IG: 0.68

Current Prediction

85%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement88%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Cash runway of 9.5 months makes a capital raise near-certain within 2026. The Stress Scanner assessed STRAINED funding. Whether the company raises equity (and on what terms) determines whether the growth story translates into shareholder value or gets diluted away. This market tests the timing of the inevitable financing event.

FUNDING_FRAGILITYGOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 82% – 90%Aggregate: 85%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

88%

$242.8M cash with $305M annual burn gives ~9.5 months runway. Company must raise capital by Q4 2026 to avoid going concern. The $10B market cap makes equity financing the most likely path.

9.5 months runway$10B market cap enables equity raiseOperating necessity

opusRun 2

85%

The math is straightforward: the company cannot sustain operations through 2026 without additional capital. While private financing from Soon-Shiong is possible, the specification excludes private placements with the controlling shareholder. Public offering probability is high.

Cash runway mathPublic offering specifiedHistorical ATM usage

opusRun 3

82%

Near-certain that capital is needed. The question is whether it comes via public equity or alternative paths (royalty financing, partnership deals, private placement). Revenue growth and pipeline progress could enable a partnership deal instead of public equity. Slightly lower probability for public equity specifically.

Capital need near-certainAlternative paths possiblePartnership deals as substitute

sonnetRun 1

90%

This is one of the most predictable markets in the batch. Cash burn guarantees the need, and the $10B market cap makes equity the path of least resistance. ATM programs are standard for biotech companies in this position.

Cash burn guarantees needATM is standard approachMarket cap enables it

sonnetRun 2

85%

High probability but not certain because: (1) Soon-Shiong could fund privately (excluded), (2) a major pharma partnership with upfront payment could provide non-equity capital, (3) Oberland-style royalty deals could extend runway. Still, public equity is the most likely single path.

Alternative funding paths existPublic equity most likelyPartnership upfront possible

sonnetRun 3

87%

Strong conviction on YES. The company has used ATM offerings historically, the market cap supports it, and the cash timeline is tight. The only scenario where this resolves NO is a large pharma deal or private Soon-Shiong financing, both less likely than a public raise.

Historical ATM usageTight cash timelinePublic raise most likely

haikuRun 1

85%

Cash runway of 9.5 months requires action. Public equity offering is the most common path for biotech companies with $10B+ market caps. Very high probability.

Cash runway demands actionStandard biotech approachMarket cap enables it

haikuRun 2

82%

Near-certain capital need, public equity most probable path. Small discount for alternative financing routes (partnerships, royalty deals).

Near-certain capital needPublic equity probableAlternative routes possible

haikuRun 3

85%

High confidence YES. $242.8M cash / $305M burn = ~9.5 months. Company will raise capital and public equity is the most likely form.

Simple mathPublic equity likelyHigh confidence

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if ImmunityBio files an S-3, prospectus supplement, or 8-K disclosing a public equity offering, ATM program initiation, or new convertible debt issuance by December 31, 2026. Private placements with the controlling shareholder alone do not count.

Resolution Source

SEC EDGAR filings (S-3, prospectus supplement, or 8-K)

Source Trigger

ATM or equity offering announcement

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

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