IBRXActive

Will ImmunityBio announce a public equity or convertible debt offering by December 31, 2026?

Resolves January 15, 2027(261d)

IG: 0.68

Current Prediction

90%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement94%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 19, 2026

Prediction History

Initial

85%

Mar 17

+5pp

Current

90%

Apr 19

The $138M Q1 cash build (from $242.8M to $380.9M) cannot be fully explained by the $75M Oberland tranche, $25M convertible conversion, and Q1 revenue alone. The ~$60M+ residual likely reflects ATM issuances during Q1 (pending 10-Q confirmation).

Baseline 0.85 was already high. The cash-build composition during Q1 makes it even more likely an ATM was activated and will be disclosed in the 10-Q, if it has not already been separately filed. Recalibrated to 0.90.

Why This Question Matters

Cash runway of 9.5 months makes a capital raise near-certain within 2026. The Stress Scanner assessed STRAINED funding. Whether the company raises equity (and on what terms) determines whether the growth story translates into shareholder value or gets diluted away. This market tests the timing of the inevitable financing event.

FUNDING_FRAGILITYGOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 85% – 92%Aggregate: 90%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

90%

The $138M Q1 cash build minus the $75M Oberland tranche, minus $25M conversion (non-cash for the holder, liability reduction for company), minus net revenue leaves ~$60-75M unaccounted. This strongly implies ATM issuance during Q1 already. The 10-Q will likely disclose it, satisfying the resolution criteria. If Q1 didn't include ATM, the company will almost certainly activate one in H2 given ongoing burn.

Cash build unexplained residualATM most likely mechanismH2 activation probable if not Q1

opusRun 2

88%

The resolution criteria include 'ATM program initiation' — many biotech companies maintain active ATMs that are disclosed in S-3 filings. Given the company's financing profile and remaining cash-flow negative position through 2026, a public offering or ATM filing during 2026 is near-certain.

ATM initiation qualifiesCash-flow negative continuesStandard biotech practice

opusRun 3

92%

Multiple pathways to YES resolution: (1) ATM disclosure in 10-Q as used during Q1, (2) S-3 refresh triggering prospectus supplement, (3) opportunistic offering post-QUILT-2.005 readout, (4) convertible refinance. At least one near-certain.

Multiple pathwaysS-3 maintenance requiredOpportunistic post-readout

sonnetRun 1

88%

If the $138M cash build included ATM issuances, this is already resolved YES pending 10-Q disclosure. Even if not, the company's structural cash needs make year-end issuance very likely.

Possibly already resolvedStructural cash needs

sonnetRun 2

90%

Biotech companies with $80M+ quarterly burn maintain active ATM programs as a matter of routine capital management. The resolution criteria explicitly include ATM initiation or any prospectus supplement. Near-certain.

Routine biotech practiceBroad resolution criteria

sonnetRun 3

85%

Some risk if the company structures future financing as private (NantCapital placement or additional RIPA tranches that don't qualify under the resolution criteria). But public offering or ATM remains the most likely path.

Private placement alternativePublic path most likely

haikuRun 1

90%

Cash build composition implies ATM already used. Very high probability.

Composition implies ATMHigh probability

haikuRun 2

88%

Standard practice for cash-flow negative biotechs. Year-end disclosure near-certain.

Standard practiceYear-end certain

haikuRun 3

90%

Even if Q1 was pure revenue + debt, Q2-Q4 make public offering very likely to close the ongoing cash gap.

Q2-Q4 gapPublic offering likely

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if ImmunityBio files an S-3, prospectus supplement, or 8-K disclosing a public equity offering, ATM program initiation, or new convertible debt issuance by December 31, 2026. Private placements with the controlling shareholder alone do not count.

Resolution Source

SEC EDGAR filings (S-3, prospectus supplement, or 8-K)

Source Trigger

ATM or equity offering announcement

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

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