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AAPLActive

Will the DOJ v. Apple antitrust trial produce an adverse ruling for Apple by year-end 2026?

Resolves January 15, 2027(293d)
IG: 0.90

Current Prediction

24%
Likely No
Model Agreement78%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedMarch 27, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 18% – 29%Aggregate: 24%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
24%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
opusRun 2
26%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
opusRun 3
19%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
sonnetRun 1
18%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
sonnetRun 2
20%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
sonnetRun 3
25%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
haikuRun 1
22%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
haikuRun 2
27%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
haikuRun 3
29%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if any US District Court issues a ruling finding Apple liable on any of the DOJ antitrust claims by December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if no ruling has been issued, the case is dismissed, or Apple prevails on all claims.

Resolution Source

US District Court docket for United States v. Apple Inc.

Source Trigger

DOJ v. Apple trial ruling - any ruling on merits

regulatory-readerREGULATORY_EXPOSUREHIGH
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