Will Booking.com's US short-term rental market share exceed 15% by end of 2026?

Booking.com needs to nearly double US STR share from 8% to >15% within a single calendar year. Even with aggressive expansion, Booking's global share only grew 4pp over the entire 2019-2024 period while Airbnb grew 16pp. The US market is Booking.com's weakest geography. While multi-listing enables supply-side expansion and the Genius loyalty program is a differentiator, the 90% unpaid traffic at Airbnb represents a massive structural advantage. Near-doubling in one year is extremely unlikely.

The question requires a near-doubling of market share (8% to >15%) in one calendar year. Historical data shows Booking.com gained only 4pp globally over 5 years (2019-2024). In the US specifically, the threat is assessed as only MEDIUM vs HIGH in Europe. Airbnb's 90% unpaid traffic creates a demand aggregation moat that Booking.com would need enormous marketing spend to overcome. Even accounting for multi-listing enabling quick supply expansion, the demand side is the bottleneck. However, if measured by gross booking value and Booking.com targets higher-end properties, there is a slight additional path.

Booking.com's alternative accommodations grew from 25% to 36% of its bookings post-pandemic (11pp growth in their mix), but this is global, not US-specific. In the US, Booking.com starts from a much lower base (8%) and faces Airbnb's strongest market position. Resolution criteria allow for 'any point in 2026' and include measurement by booking volume OR gross booking value. If Booking.com runs aggressive US promotions, they could spike temporarily, but going from 8% to 15% in under 12 months would be historically unprecedented for this market. Booking Genius did not prevent Airbnb from outpacing Booking globally.

8% to 15% in one year is simply not happening. Booking.com has been trying to expand in the US for years and barely moved the needle. Their strength is in European hotels, not US vacation rentals. Airbnb's brand dominance (90% unpaid traffic) in the US is massive. Multi-listing helps on supply but demand is the constraint. Even Vrbo at 21% took years to build. The math does not work for this timeframe.

The committee resolved Booking.com's US threat as MEDIUM, not HIGH. They are coming from 8% share in a market where Airbnb has 43% and Vrbo holds 21%. Booking gained only 4pp globally over 5 years. To nearly double US share in one year would require either a massive strategic pivot (like acquiring a US-focused platform) or a catastrophic Airbnb failure. Neither is present in the analysis facts. The Genius loyalty program is a long-term competitive tool, not something that drives 7pp share gains in 12 months.

Considering the bull case: Booking.com has been investing aggressively, alternative accommodations grew from 25% to 36% of their bookings, and they have a loyalty program Airbnb lacks. Hosts multi-list so supply can shift quickly. But even in the most favorable reading, global share only moved from ~14% to ~18% over 5 years. In the US specifically, where Booking.com is weakest and Airbnb is strongest, the barriers are even higher. A one-year near-doubling requires a step-change event, not organic growth.

8% to 15% in one year is a near-doubling. Booking.com gained 4pp globally over 5 years. US is their weakest market. Airbnb has 90% unpaid traffic dominance. Very unlikely.

Booking.com's US STR share is 8%, needs >15%. That is 7+ percentage points in one year. Global precedent shows only 4pp gain over 5 years. Committee rated US threat as MEDIUM. Airbnb's brand moat is strongest in US. Low probability.

Near-doubling of market share in a single year against the strongest competitor in that geography. Multi-listing enables supply but demand follows brand. 90% unpaid traffic is the key barrier. Very unlikely event.