Back to Forecasting
ABNB Forecast Markets
Airbnb, Inc.
7
Active Markets
20%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will any top-5 US metro or London/Paris implement NYC-style STR restrictions by end of 2026?
8%
Likely No
97% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will Airbnb's FY2026 revenue guidance imply growth above 12% YoY?
35%
Likely No
16%35%after Q4 2025 earnings: FY2026 guided 'at least low double digits', Q1 at +14-16%
84% agreement
May 31, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will the Fifth Circuit affirm the New Orleans trial court ruling against Airbnb by end of 2026?
30%
Likely No
92% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will Airbnb report negative YoY North America nights growth in any quarter through Q2 2026?
9%
Likely No
18%9%after Q4 2025 earnings: NA nights positive (mid-single-digits), growth reaccelerating
93% agreement
Sep 15, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will Barcelona begin active enforcement of its STR license phase-out by end of 2026?
40%
Likely No
90% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will Booking.com's US short-term rental market share exceed 15% by end of 2026?
6%
Likely No
97% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will Airbnb's LATAM or APAC nights growth decelerate to single digits in any quarter through Q2 2026?
10%
Likely No
17%10%after Q4 2025 earnings: LATAM high-teens, APAC mid-teens — both double-digit
96% agreement
Sep 15, 2026
IG: 0.48
Resolution Timeline
Sep 15, 2026
Will Airbnb report negative YoY North America nights growth in any quarter through Q2 2026?Prediction: 9%
Sep 15, 2026
Will Airbnb's LATAM or APAC nights growth decelerate to single digits in any quarter through Q2 2026?Prediction: 10%
Jan 31, 2027
Will any top-5 US metro or London/Paris implement NYC-style STR restrictions by end of 2026?Prediction: 8%
Jan 31, 2027
Will the Fifth Circuit affirm the New Orleans trial court ruling against Airbnb by end of 2026?Prediction: 30%
Jan 31, 2027
Will Barcelona begin active enforcement of its STR license phase-out by end of 2026?Prediction: 40%
Mar 31, 2027
Will Booking.com's US short-term rental market share exceed 15% by end of 2026?Prediction: 6%