Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive
Back to Forecasting
ABNB Forecast Markets
Airbnb, Inc.
7
Active Markets
20%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will any top-5 US metro or London/Paris implement NYC-style STR restrictions by end of 2026?
8%
Likely No
97% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will Airbnb's FY2026 revenue guidance imply growth above 12% YoY?
35%
Likely No
16%35%after Q4 2025 earnings: FY2026 guided 'at least low double digits', Q1 at +14-16%
84% agreement
May 31, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will the Fifth Circuit affirm the New Orleans trial court ruling against Airbnb by end of 2026?
30%
Likely No
92% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will Airbnb report negative YoY North America nights growth in any quarter through Q2 2026?
9%
Likely No
18%9%after Q4 2025 earnings: NA nights positive (mid-single-digits), growth reaccelerating
93% agreement
Sep 15, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will Barcelona begin active enforcement of its STR license phase-out by end of 2026?
40%
Likely No
90% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will Booking.com's US short-term rental market share exceed 15% by end of 2026?
6%
Likely No
97% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will Airbnb's LATAM or APAC nights growth decelerate to single digits in any quarter through Q2 2026?
10%
Likely No
17%10%after Q4 2025 earnings: LATAM high-teens, APAC mid-teens — both double-digit
96% agreement
Sep 15, 2026
IG: 0.48
Resolution Timeline
Sep 15, 2026
Will Airbnb report negative YoY North America nights growth in any quarter through Q2 2026?Prediction: 9%
Sep 15, 2026
Will Airbnb's LATAM or APAC nights growth decelerate to single digits in any quarter through Q2 2026?Prediction: 10%
Jan 31, 2027
Will any top-5 US metro or London/Paris implement NYC-style STR restrictions by end of 2026?Prediction: 8%
Jan 31, 2027
Will the Fifth Circuit affirm the New Orleans trial court ruling against Airbnb by end of 2026?Prediction: 30%
Jan 31, 2027
Will Barcelona begin active enforcement of its STR license phase-out by end of 2026?Prediction: 40%
Mar 31, 2027
Will Booking.com's US short-term rental market share exceed 15% by end of 2026?Prediction: 6%